CAJ | 학술논문

根据用于预测油气田开发指标的增长曲线的定义，提出了一种新型btc因子型增长曲线——，并推导了其对应的产量（Qg）的计算式。特性研究表明其()Qgmax和()（tQg）max的最大变化范围均为0～0.649 2，说明其峰值产量可出现在中期靠后，因而符合绝大多数油气田的产量变化规律；其Qt—Np关系曲线在后期可向下凹或接近直线的向上凹；其待定系数有4个，因而描述产量变化更加灵活，但系数可用线性回归简单求出；相国寺气田和庆祖集油田的计算实例表明，计算曲线与实际值符合得相当好。以上都表明提出的增长曲线是一种预测功能很强的增长曲线。
근거용우예측유기전개발지표적증장곡선적정의，제출료일충신형btc인자형증장곡선——，병추도료기대응적산량（Qg）적계산식。특성연구표명기()Qgmax화()（tQg）max적최대변화범위균위0～0.649 2，설명기봉치산량가출현재중기고후，인이부합절대다수유기전적산량변화규률；기Qt—Np관계곡선재후기가향하요혹접근직선적향상요；기대정계수유4개，인이묘술산량변화경가령활，단계수가용선성회귀간단구출；상국사기전화경조집유전적계산실례표명，계산곡선여실제치부합득상당호。이상도표명제출적증장곡선시일충예측공능흔강적증장곡선。
On the basis of the definition of growth curve of forecasting oiland gas field development indexes， a new btc factor pattern growth curve—— is proposed and a formula of calculating relevant production （Qg） is derived in the paper． Through research it is shown that the maximum change of its （）Qgmax and （）（tQg）max are 0～0．649 2， which indicates that its peak production will appear in the late middle stage，thus tallying with the production change law of the overwhelming majority of oil and gas fields，its Qt－Np relation curve may be curved down or curved up near to a straight line in the late stage； and there are four undetermined coefficients in it， therefore it may be more flexible to describe the prodction change and these coefficients can be easily acquired by linear regression method． Through the calculation of the data obtained from Xiangguosi gas field and Qingzuji oil field， it is indicated that the calculated curve is conform with the practical one very well and such a new growth curve mentioned above has a large forecast function．