CAJ | 학술논문

为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2009年9-11月T639模式96小时预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析.结果表明:3种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能.综合来看,ECMWF模式埘符系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式次之;ECMWF模式对0917号热带风暴芭玛(Parma)的预报较为成功,T639模式稳定件较差,而口本模式对"芭玛"的预报无论是路径还是强度都存在较大偏差.
위경호지응용T639모식중기예보산품,대2009년9-11월T639모식96소시예보산품진행료천기학검험,병여ECMWF、일본모식진행료대비분석.결과표명:3충모식균대아주중고위배류형세적조정화연변구유교호적예보성능.종합래간,ECMWF모식시부계통급요소적예보최접근실황;일본모식화T639모식차지;ECMWF모식대0917호열대풍폭파마(Parma)적예보교위성공,T639모식은정건교차,이구본모식대"파마"적예보무론시로경환시강도도존재교대편차.
In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639,some synoptic verification on its medium-range forecasting in 2009 autumn is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models.The results show that the three models have good performances in the aspect of predicting the largescale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas.As a whole,ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models.Taking tropical storm No.0917(Parma)as a case,it is found that ECMWF model gets the most correct results,and that T639 model has poor stability,whereas Japan model completely failed in forecasting the track and the intensity of Parma.