CAJ | 학술논문

采用平滑线散点图分析某高校招生部门提供的2005～2009年分省、直辖市所录取新生入学报到率历史数据，应用基于时间序列法的新生入学报到率预测模型预测了2010年14个省、直辖市新生入学报到率，与实际报到率相比较结果显示由模型预测出的2010年新生报到率绝大部分处于置信区间．该模型可为高校招生部门在各省、直辖市投放招生指标提供一种定量决策方法．
채용평활선산점도분석모고교초생부문제공적2005～2009년분성、직할시소록취신생입학보도솔역사수거，응용기우시간서렬법적신생입학보도솔예측모형예측료2010년14개성、직할시신생입학보도솔，여실제보도솔상비교결과현시유모형예측출적2010년신생보도솔절대부분처우치신구간．해모형가위고교초생부문재각성、직할시투방초생지표제공일충정량결책방법．
Scatter diagrams of smoothed lines are used to analyze enrollment rates of freshmen from different provinces and municipalities from 2005 to 2009 in a college. Enrollment rates of freshmen of 14 provinces and municipalities in 2010 are predicted based on time series. This model offers a quantitative approach to enrollment departments of colleges and universities to allocate enrollment quotas in different provinces and municipalities.