中华流行病学杂志
中華流行病學雜誌
중화류행병학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
2011年
8期
816-820
,共5页
安雅臣%陈云霞%王玉浔%赵晓晶%王艳%张江%李春玲%彭延波%高素玲%常丽莎%张丽%薛新宏%陈瑞英%王大力
安雅臣%陳雲霞%王玉潯%趙曉晶%王豔%張江%李春玲%彭延波%高素玲%常麗莎%張麗%薛新宏%陳瑞英%王大力
안아신%진운하%왕옥심%조효정%왕염%장강%리춘령%팽연파%고소령%상려사%장려%설신굉%진서영%왕대력
脑卒中,缺血性%复发%危险因素%Cox回归模型%预后指数
腦卒中,缺血性%複髮%危險因素%Cox迴歸模型%預後指數
뇌졸중,결혈성%복발%위험인소%Cox회귀모형%예후지수
Ischemic stroke%Recurrence%Risk factors%Cox' s regression model%Prognosis index
目的 探讨影响缺血性脑卒中复发的危险因素并建立Cox比例风险回归模型.方法 回顾性收集2008-2009年河北联合大学附属医院神经内科确诊的连续性初发缺血性脑卒中患者为研究对象,同时随访患者的复发情况,于2010年6月30日完成随访工作,应用Kaplan-Meier法进行复发率分析,应用Cox比例风险回归模型对影响患者复发的危险因素进行单因素和多因素分析,建立复发模型.结果 随访期间共79例患者复发,患者1年复发率为12.75%,2年复发率为18.87%,经Cox比例风险回归模型单因素及多因素分析显示,年龄(X1)(RR=1.025,95%CI:1.003～1.048)、高血压史(X2)(RR=1.976,95%CI:1.014～3.851)、家族卒中史(X3)(RR=2.647,95%CI:1.175～5.961)、总胆固醇(X4)(RR=1.485,95%CI:1.214～1.817)、ESRS评分(X5)(RR=1.327,95%CI:1.057～1.666)和病情进展(X6)(RR=1.889,95%CI:1.123～3.178)是影响患者复发的独立危险因素,建立复发模型的个体预后指数(PI)为0.025X1+0.681X2+0.973X3+0.395X4+0.283X5+0.63X6.PI值越小,复发危险性越低;PI值越大,复发危险性越高.结论 年龄、高血压史、家族卒中史、总胆固醇、ESRS评分和病情进展是缺血性脑卒中患者复发的独立危险因素,并成功建立复发模型及个体PI方程.
目的 探討影響缺血性腦卒中複髮的危險因素併建立Cox比例風險迴歸模型.方法 迴顧性收集2008-2009年河北聯閤大學附屬醫院神經內科確診的連續性初髮缺血性腦卒中患者為研究對象,同時隨訪患者的複髮情況,于2010年6月30日完成隨訪工作,應用Kaplan-Meier法進行複髮率分析,應用Cox比例風險迴歸模型對影響患者複髮的危險因素進行單因素和多因素分析,建立複髮模型.結果 隨訪期間共79例患者複髮,患者1年複髮率為12.75%,2年複髮率為18.87%,經Cox比例風險迴歸模型單因素及多因素分析顯示,年齡(X1)(RR=1.025,95%CI:1.003～1.048)、高血壓史(X2)(RR=1.976,95%CI:1.014～3.851)、傢族卒中史(X3)(RR=2.647,95%CI:1.175～5.961)、總膽固醇(X4)(RR=1.485,95%CI:1.214～1.817)、ESRS評分(X5)(RR=1.327,95%CI:1.057～1.666)和病情進展(X6)(RR=1.889,95%CI:1.123～3.178)是影響患者複髮的獨立危險因素,建立複髮模型的箇體預後指數(PI)為0.025X1+0.681X2+0.973X3+0.395X4+0.283X5+0.63X6.PI值越小,複髮危險性越低;PI值越大,複髮危險性越高.結論 年齡、高血壓史、傢族卒中史、總膽固醇、ESRS評分和病情進展是缺血性腦卒中患者複髮的獨立危險因素,併成功建立複髮模型及箇體PI方程.
목적 탐토영향결혈성뇌졸중복발적위험인소병건립Cox비례풍험회귀모형.방법 회고성수집2008-2009년하북연합대학부속의원신경내과학진적련속성초발결혈성뇌졸중환자위연구대상,동시수방환자적복발정황,우2010년6월30일완성수방공작,응용Kaplan-Meier법진행복발솔분석,응용Cox비례풍험회귀모형대영향환자복발적위험인소진행단인소화다인소분석,건립복발모형.결과 수방기간공79례환자복발,환자1년복발솔위12.75%,2년복발솔위18.87%,경Cox비례풍험회귀모형단인소급다인소분석현시,년령(X1)(RR=1.025,95%CI:1.003～1.048)、고혈압사(X2)(RR=1.976,95%CI:1.014～3.851)、가족졸중사(X3)(RR=2.647,95%CI:1.175～5.961)、총담고순(X4)(RR=1.485,95%CI:1.214～1.817)、ESRS평분(X5)(RR=1.327,95%CI:1.057～1.666)화병정진전(X6)(RR=1.889,95%CI:1.123～3.178)시영향환자복발적독립위험인소,건립복발모형적개체예후지수(PI)위0.025X1+0.681X2+0.973X3+0.395X4+0.283X5+0.63X6.PI치월소,복발위험성월저;PI치월대,복발위험성월고.결론 년령、고혈압사、가족졸중사、총담고순、ESRS평분화병정진전시결혈성뇌졸중환자복발적독립위험인소,병성공건립복발모형급개체PI방정.
Objective To investigate the risk factors and establish the Cox' s regression model on the recurrence of ischemic stroke. Methods We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients with ischemic stroke admitted to the Neurology Department of the Hebei United University Affiliated Hospital between January 1,2008 and December 31,2009. Cases had been followed since the onset of ischemic stroke. The follow-up program was finished in June 30, 2010. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe the recurrence rate. Monovariant and multivariate Cox' s proportional hazard regression model were used to analyze the risk factors associated to the episodes of recurrence.And then, a recurrence model was set up. Results During the period of follow-up program, 79 cases were relapsed,with the recurrence rates as 12.75% in one year and 18.87% in two years. Monovariant and multivariate Cox' s proportional hazard regression model showed that the independent risk factors that were associated with the recurrence appeared to be age (X1)(RR=1.025,95% CI: 1.003-1.048),history of hypertension (X2) (RR= 1.976, 95% CI: 1.014-3.851), history of family strokes (X3) (RR=2.647,95%CI: 1.175-5.961), total cholesterol amount (X4) (RR= 1.485,95%CI: 1.214-1.817), ESRS total scores (X5) (RR= 1.327,95%CI: 1.057-1.666) and progression of the disease (X6) (RR= 1.889,95%CI: 1.123-3.178). Personal prognosis index (PI) of the recurrence model was as follows: PI=0.025X1 + 0.681X2+ 0.973X3 + 0.395X4+ 0.283X5 + 0.636X6. The smaller the personal prognosis index was, the lower the recurrence risk appeared, while the bigger the personal prognosis index was, the higher the recurrence risk appeared. Conclusion Age, history of hypertension, total cholesterol amount, total scores of ESRS, together with the disease progression were the independent risk factors associated with the recurrence episodes of ischemic stroke. Both recurrence model and the personal prognosis index equation were successful constructed.
