CAJ | 학술논문

根据实测水文资料与历史记载资料,分析鄱阳湖区近1 000年来干旱的气候演变特征,表明从大周期上看,本世纪鄱阳湖区的气候严重干旱属正常偏少状态;但从小周期上看,本世纪前20年湖区气候严重干旱为偏多状态,未来十几年的抗旱形势依然十分严峻.利用都昌站水位资料,分析鄱阳湖区近55年来干旱的水文变化特征,表明干旱的水文变化较气候变化更为剧烈,且单向性变化趋势更加显著,说明湖区抗旱水资源利用困难呈加大趋势,旱期供水形势极为严峻.探讨了新形势下水文防旱对策.
근거실측수문자료여역사기재자료,분석파양호구근1 000년래간한적기후연변특정,표명종대주기상간,본세기파양호구적기후엄중간한속정상편소상태;단종소주기상간,본세기전20년호구기후엄중간한위편다상태,미래십궤년적항한형세의연십분엄준.이용도창참수위자료,분석파양호구근55년래간한적수문변화특정,표명간한적수문변화교기후변화경위극렬,차단향성변화추세경가현저,설명호구항한수자원이용곤난정가대추세,한기공수형세겁위엄준.탐토료신형세하수문방한대책.
The climate change characteristics of the Poyanghu Lake Basin in the last 1000 years were analyzed according to the observed and historical data. The results show that the serious climate droughts in the Poyanghu Lake Basin belong to normal lower state in this century according to large cycle. However, the serious climate droughts belong to normal higher state in the first 20 years of this century according to small cycle. Drought is still a problem to be faced at in the next decade. Analysis of the hydrological drought change characteristics of Poyanghu Lake Basin in the last 55 years based on the water level data from Duchang Station show that hydrological drought variety is more exquisite than climatic variety, and the mono-direction change trend is more remarkable.