合肥工业大学学报：社会科学版
閤肥工業大學學報：社會科學版
합비공업대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences)
2011年
5期
12-19
,共8页
经济结构%内需%外需%协整分析
經濟結構%內需%外需%協整分析
경제결구%내수%외수%협정분석
economic structure%domestic demand%external demand%cointegration analysis
利用1980-2009年的统计数据，分析了投资、消费、进出口对经济发展的影响。实证分析结果表明，整体来看30年来消费对经济拉动作用超过投资和进出口，但是最近15年消费拉动经济的主导作用逐渐丧失，投资和出口的作用大大增加；消费和投资对经济增长具有长期稳定作用，而进出口在短期内有作用，但是作用明显小于投资和消费。实证结果和我国经济发展现状相比较可以得出我国经济发展存在内外需结构失衡、进出口结构失衡、投资和消费结构失衡的结论。
利用1980-2009年的統計數據，分析瞭投資、消費、進齣口對經濟髮展的影響。實證分析結果錶明，整體來看30年來消費對經濟拉動作用超過投資和進齣口，但是最近15年消費拉動經濟的主導作用逐漸喪失，投資和齣口的作用大大增加；消費和投資對經濟增長具有長期穩定作用，而進齣口在短期內有作用，但是作用明顯小于投資和消費。實證結果和我國經濟髮展現狀相比較可以得齣我國經濟髮展存在內外需結構失衡、進齣口結構失衡、投資和消費結構失衡的結論。
이용1980-2009년적통계수거，분석료투자、소비、진출구대경제발전적영향。실증분석결과표명，정체래간30년래소비대경제랍동작용초과투자화진출구，단시최근15년소비랍동경제적주도작용축점상실，투자화출구적작용대대증가；소비화투자대경제증장구유장기은정작용，이진출구재단기내유작용，단시작용명현소우투자화소비。실증결과화아국경제발전현상상비교가이득출아국경제발전존재내외수결구실형、진출구결구실형、투자화소비결구실형적결론。
In this paper, based on the statistical data during the period 1980--2009, the effects of investment, consumption, import and export on the economic development are analyzed. The results show that the stimulating effect of the consumption on the economy is greater than the investment and import and export during this period, but the dominant role of consumption-driven economy has gradually been incapacitated in the last 15 years, while the role of investment and export has become noticeably stronger; the consumption and investment can exert a long-term stable effect on the economic growth, while the export and import play a short-term and less-effective one. Compared with the cur- rent situation of economic development in China, it is concluded that there are structural imbalances of domestic and external demands, import and export, investment and consumption in China＇s economic development.
