CAJ | 학술논문

利用CCSM2.0.1模式完成的千年模拟试验结果对近530年中国东部区域旱涝事件进行了初步的研究.结果表明模式一定程度能够反映过去530年中国东部降水变化规律,在年代际变化上与旱涝等级资料较为一致.模式能模拟出旱涝事件世纪尺度变化特征以及旱涝事件的群发现象.从模拟结果中发现,过去530年中国东部共发生了3次持续时间5年或5年以上的严重干旱事件,分别发生在1483～1488年、1635～1645年和1964～1968年;4次持续时间5年或5年以上的严莺洪涝事件,分别发生在1529～1533年、1749～1753年、1926～1932年和1978～1984年.其中,1483～1488年、1635～1645年和1964～1968年干旱事件以及1749～1753年洪涝事件与旱涝等级序列有较好的对应,说明模式对严重干旱事件具有一定的再现能力,而对严重洪涝事件的模拟能力还有待加强.对个例分析发现,对应较好的3次严重干旱事件发生时期降水空间型态的演化与1749～1753年严重洪涝事件不同,前者前期呈南涝北旱格局,旱区逐年向东、南扩大,后者前期同样也呈南涝北旱格局,但为涝区逐年向东、北扩大.模拟还发现中国东部夏季降水的异常变化主要受夏季风影响,发生严重干旱事件期间夏季风偏弱,发生严重洪涝事件期间夏季风偏强,模拟显示严重旱涝事件期间副热带高压无明显变化.
이용CCSM2.0.1모식완성적천년모의시험결과대근530년중국동부구역한로사건진행료초보적연구.결과표명모식일정정도능구반영과거530년중국동부강수변화규률,재년대제변화상여한로등급자료교위일치.모식능모의출한로사건세기척도변화특정이급한로사건적군발현상.종모의결과중발현,과거530년중국동부공발생료3차지속시간5년혹5년이상적엄중간한사건,분별발생재1483～1488년、1635～1645년화1964～1968년;4차지속시간5년혹5년이상적엄앵홍로사건,분별발생재1529～1533년、1749～1753년、1926～1932년화1978～1984년.기중,1483～1488년、1635～1645년화1964～1968년간한사건이급1749～1753년홍로사건여한로등급서렬유교호적대응,설명모식대엄중간한사건구유일정적재현능력,이대엄중홍로사건적모의능력환유대가강.대개례분석발현,대응교호적3차엄중간한사건발생시기강수공간형태적연화여1749～1753년엄중홍로사건불동,전자전기정남로북한격국,한구축년향동、남확대,후자전기동양야정남로북한격국,단위로구축년향동、북확대.모의환발현중국동부하계강수적이상변화주요수하계풍영향,발생엄중간한사건기간하계풍편약,발생엄중홍로사건기간하계풍편강,모의현시엄중한로사건기간부열대고압무명현변화.
Severe drought and flood events of the last 530 years in East China were investigated by a 1000-yr global climate model CCSM2.0.1. The simulated summer precipitation and drought and flood events are, on an interdecadal scale,consistent with the historical records. There were three severe drought events lasting 5 years and more occurred in 1483 ～ 1488, 1635 ～ 1645 and 1964 ～ 1968 and four severe flood events lasting 5 years or more occurred in 1529 ～ 1533, 1749 ～ 1753, 1926 ～ 1932 and 1978 ～ 1984. Especially,the three drought events and the 1749 ～ 1753 flood event are very clear and definite in the historical records. As to the three drought events,they first developed in North China and then expanded southward to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while as to the 1749 ～ 1753 flood event,it first developed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and then expanded northward to North China. It is found that such lasting drought and flood events can be attributed to influence of summer monsoon,whereas the Western Pacific subtropical high pressure plays only a minor role.