CAJ | 학술논문

根据淮河流域14个气象站点1964-2007年观测降水量与温度数据和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式在3种排放情景下对该流域2001-2100年的气候预估,利用人工神经网络模型预估淮河蚌埠站2010-2100年逐月径流量变化.计算结果表明:3种排放情景下2010-2100年淮河径流量年际变化幅度差异较大,SRES-A2情景总体处于波动上升趋势,其中2051-2085年上升趋势显著,SRES-AlB情景2024-2037年年平均流量显著降低;SRES-Bl情景年平均流量的变率甚小.季节分析表明:春季径流量在2010-2100年变幅最小,距平百分率在-15.1%～18.6%之间小幅波动.夏季平均流量在2040年代前呈下降趋势,之后小幅波动上升.秋,冬季平均流量SRES-A2和SRES-AlB情景变幅显著,其中,秋季SRES-A2情景2060年代距平百分率下降达50.6%,为3种情景下各季节径流量降幅之最;冬季SRES-AlB情景2050年代其增幅达到54.7%,亦为上升幅度之最.
근거회하류역14개기상참점1964-2007년관측강수량여온도수거화ECHAM5/MPI-OM모식재3충배방정경하대해류역2001-2100년적기후예고,이용인공신경망락모형예고회하방부참2010-2100년축월경류량변화.계산결과표명:3충배방정경하2010-2100년회하경류량년제변화폭도차이교대,SRES-A2정경총체처우파동상승추세,기중2051-2085년상승추세현저,SRES-AlB정경2024-2037년년평균류량현저강저;SRES-Bl정경년평균류량적변솔심소.계절분석표명:춘계경류량재2010-2100년변폭최소,거평백분솔재-15.1%～18.6%지간소폭파동.하계평균류량재2040년대전정하강추세,지후소폭파동상승.추,동계평균류량SRES-A2화SRES-AlB정경변폭현저,기중,추계SRES-A2정경2060년대거평백분솔하강체50.6%,위3충정경하각계절경류량강폭지최;동계SRES-AlB정경2050년대기증폭체도54.7%,역위상승폭도지최.
Based on the observed precipitation and temperature data at 14 meteorological stations of the Huaihe River basin from 1964 to 2007, and the climate projection from 2001 to 2100 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, the streamflow for the basin from 2010 to 2100 were projected under the SRES-A2,-A1B, and-B1 scenarios by applying artificial neural network (ANN) hydrological models. The results show that differences in annual streamflow from 2010 to 2100 are significant under the three scenarios;the streamflow under the SRES-A2 scenario displays ageneral increasing trend, especially significant from 2051 to 2085, it declines gradually in fluctuation from 2024 to 2037 under the SRES-A1B scenario, and shows no obvious trend under the SRES-B1 scenario. Fluctuations of spring streamflow in 2010-2100 are the smallest in all four seasons, ranging from-15.1% to 18.6% under the three scenarios. Summer average streamflow decreases before the 2040s and increases subsequently whilst the fluctuations are not significant. Autumn streamflow has obvious fluctuations under the SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B scenarios;it drops in the 2060s under the SRES-A2 scenario by 50.6%, which is the maximum decreasing range for all projected seasons. Winter streamflow increases in 2050s under SRES-A1B scenario by 54.7%, which is the maximum increasing range in four seasons.