CAJ | 학술논문

[目的]建立预测气温动态变化的Elman神经网络模型。[方法]参考温度的固有特性,应用1951～2010年的重庆温度数据,采用Elman人工神经网络模型对温度进行预测估计。[结果]实证仿真结果表明,模型的相对误差较小,能够对未来气温变化进行较好的模拟。[结论]该模型预测结果可以用于指导农业生产,并可以进一步应用到天气衍生品定价等领域。
[목적]건립예측기온동태변화적Elman신경망락모형。[방법]삼고온도적고유특성,응용1951～2010년적중경온도수거,채용Elman인공신경망락모형대온도진행예측고계。[결과]실증방진결과표명,모형적상대오차교소,능구대미래기온변화진행교호적모의。[결론]해모형예측결과가이용우지도농업생산,병가이진일보응용도천기연생품정개등영역。
[Objective] The aim was to establish Elman neural network model to predict the dynamic changes of temperature. [Method] Considering the inherent nature of temperature, and dy dint of the temperature in Chongqing during 1951-2010, the Elman artificial neural network model was applied to predict the temperature. [Result] This simulation result suggested that the relative error was small and can have a good simulation to the future temperature changes. [Conclusion] The prediction result can guide agricultural production and further apply to the field of pricing the weather derivative products.