CAJ | 학술논문

为对电力变压器进行可靠性评估,首次提出了基于马尔科夫过程的电力变压器可靠性评估模型.该法将变压器所处的使用状态分为正常运行、绕组故障、预防性试验等11种状态,针对变压器可靠性指标统计数据,结合马尔科夫过程,同时运用频率和持续时间法,建立了综合的变压器可靠性评估模型.通过对变压器可能所处的各个状态概率和其它一些可靠性指标的计算,验证了该模型的正确性.基于马尔科夫过程的电力变压器可靠性评估模型能较准确客观地对变压器可靠性进行量化评估,并且计算简单,具有较强的可操作性,所提出的评估方法为全面分析变压器状态从而制定变压器维护维修策略提供了理论支持.
위대전력변압기진행가고성평고,수차제출료기우마이과부과정적전력변압기가고성평고모형.해법장변압기소처적사용상태분위정상운행、요조고장、예방성시험등11충상태,침대변압기가고성지표통계수거,결합마이과부과정,동시운용빈솔화지속시간법,건립료종합적변압기가고성평고모형.통과대변압기가능소처적각개상태개솔화기타일사가고성지표적계산,험증료해모형적정학성.기우마이과부과정적전력변압기가고성평고모형능교준학객관지대변압기가고성진행양화평고,병차계산간단,구유교강적가조작성,소제출적평고방법위전면분석변압기상태종이제정변압기유호유수책략제공료이론지지.
To assess the reliability of power transformers, a new assessment model for power transformers is estab-lished by Markov process.To get the general condition of a transformer, in agreement with practical operating expe-rience, its service state is divided into eleven aspects, including normal operation, winding fault, bushing fault and preventative maintenance and so on.Secondly, the principle of Markov process is adopted to form the framework of the above eleven states in this assessment model.After that, the frequency and duration technique is introduced into the model to calculate frequency and mean duration time of each state, which is a basic method and widely used in e-lectric power system.Then, according to the statistics on reliability indices of power transformers, all the state probabilities and some other reliability indices are calculated to describe the present reliability condition of power transformers which are studied above.Finally, by means of this assessing procedure, the new comprehensive relia-bility assessment model for power transformers is founded on the base of Markov process and the frequency and du-ration technique.The proposed approach has been verified by the statistics data of nation-wide 220 kV power trans-formers, and the results show that the reliability assessment model can accurately and objectively estimate the trans-formers' reliability by calculating state probabilities and some key reliability indices.In addition, the calculating pro-gram is short and brief so that it is easy to develop and maintain.Therefore, the reliability assessment model can better support the overall analysis of transformers' reliability.