CAJ | 학술논문

拟用灾害医疗应急管理学科和数学学科之间相互交叉的研究思路,采用建立数学模型等多种研究方法,对海南省区域理化脆弱性和社会脆弱性进行评价,寻找降低本区域脆弱性的方法;应用时间序列模型预测灾害预警级别;用概率的方法计算得到各地区时间和空间上应配备的医疗应急所需的医务人员、设备和药品数,并计算出在此基础上发生各种非常规事件时人员被救治的概率,从而达到提前预警和精确动员医疗应急力量的目的.
의용재해의료응급관이학과화수학학과지간상호교차적연구사로,채용건립수학모형등다충연구방법,대해남성구역이화취약성화사회취약성진행평개,심조강저본구역취약성적방법;응용시간서렬모형예측재해예경급별;용개솔적방법계산득도각지구시간화공간상응배비적의료응급소수적의무인원、설비화약품수,병계산출재차기출상발생각충비상규사건시인원피구치적개솔,종이체도제전예경화정학동원의료응급역량적목적.
A multi-disciplinary study is proposed for emergency response management of disaster medical and mathematical discipline in the paper. The authors propose to evaluate the physical and chemical fragility and social fragility of Hainan province to search for methods to minimize local fragility; predict the level of disaster pre-warning using the time sequence model; calculate the medical personnel, equipments and drugs to be deployed at specific time and space by means of the probability method, and calculate on this basis the probability of the number of persons to be rescued against various emergencies. This aims at sending warning in advance and precisely mobilizing resources for medical emergency response.