CAJ | 학술논문

对1951—2008年中国160站年和四季的气温、降水序列是否服从正态分布进行显著性检验,以此为基础进一步对气温和降水序列中的年代际异常分量显著性作了严格的统计学分析,结果表明：1）大多数测站气温序列服从正态分布,大多数测站降水序列不服从正态分布;气温、降水序列是否服从正态分布与地域有一定联系。2）气温、降水序列中年代际变化分量的显著性存在明显差异,多数测站气温序列年代际分量显著,只有少数测站降水序列的年代际分量显著。3）因为1951—2008年中国160站年、季气温和降水序列不全服从正态分布,特别是降水序列的非正态性严重,建议对它们的统计显著性检验采用Monte Carlo方法。
대1951—2008년중국160참년화사계적기온、강수서렬시부복종정태분포진행현저성검험,이차위기출진일보대기온화강수서렬중적년대제이상분량현저성작료엄격적통계학분석,결과표명：1）대다수측참기온서렬복종정태분포,대다수측참강수서렬불복종정태분포;기온、강수서렬시부복종정태분포여지역유일정련계。2）기온、강수서렬중년대제변화분량적현저성존재명현차이,다수측참기온서렬년대제분량현저,지유소수측참강수서렬적년대제분량현저。3）인위1951—2008년중국160참년、계기온화강수서렬불전복종정태분포,특별시강수서렬적비정태성엄중,건의대타문적통계현저성검험채용Monte Carlo방법。
On the basis of the normality significance test of the annual and seasonal temperature and rainfall series at 160 stations in China from 1951 to 2008,the significance of the interdecadal anomaly components of temperature and rainfall series is statistically analyzed.The results show that：1）Temperature at most stations was normally distributed while rainfall was not,which was somewhat related to the regions.2） There was obvious difference in the significance of interdecadal components of temperature and rainfall series.The interdecadal component of temperature was significant at most stations while it was the case at only a few stations for rainfall.3） Since not all the annual and seasonal temperature and rainfall,especially the rainfall series,were normally distributed at the 160 stations in China from 1951 and 2008,the statistical significance should be tested by Monte Carlo scheme.