CAJ | 학술논문

均生函数预测方法是开展环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一.通过对东北地区玉米热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的均生函数预测模型,各模型预测的平均精度基本都达到95%以上,与逐步回归统计模型一致,但普遍要好于GM(1,1)模型,同样可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产.
균생함수예측방법시개전배경요소변화추세예측적유효방법지일.통과대동북지구옥미열량지수적분석,건립료열량지수시간변화추세적균생함수예측모형,각모형예측적평균정도기본도체도95%이상,여축보회귀통계모형일치,단보편요호우GM(1,1)모형,동양가이응용해모형적예측결과지도농업생산.
Mean generating function forecasting method is one of the effective methods to forecast changing tendency of environmental factor.On the basis of all analysis on corn heat index in northeastern China,the mean generating function forecasting model of corn heat index changing tendency is set up.The mean precision of each model is higher than 95%,which is identical to the result of stepwise regression model and better than that of GM(1,1)model.The forecasting results of mean generating function model can be used to instruct agricultural production.