CAJ | 학술논문

通过对1986-2003年新疆草原蝗虫发生面积与大气环流指数74项特征值的相关分析,筛选出与新疆蝗虫发生有显著关系的大气环流指数因子,采用逐步回归方法建立4个新疆蝗虫发生面积预测预报模型,并对模型进行了检验.利用模型对2004-2006年新疆蝗虫发生面积进行延伸预测,并与实际蝗虫发生面积进行比对,最终挑选出预报准确率在85%以上、对新疆草原蝗虫发生面积趋势具有一定预报能力和应用价值的模型,并初步分析了大气环流特征量与蝗虫发生面积的关系.
통과대1986-2003년신강초원황충발생면적여대기배류지수74항특정치적상관분석,사선출여신강황충발생유현저관계적대기배류지수인자,채용축보회귀방법건립4개신강황충발생면적예측예보모형,병대모형진행료검험.이용모형대2004-2006년신강황충발생면적진행연신예측,병여실제황충발생면적진행비대,최종도선출예보준학솔재85%이상、대신강초원황충발생면적추세구유일정예보능력화응용개치적모형,병초보분석료대기배류특정량여황충발생면적적관계.
By analyzing the correlation between the area of grasshopper occurrence and 74 characteristic indexes of atmospheric circulation in Xinjiang from 1986 to 2003, the factors of atmospheric circulation which were significant related with grasshopper occurrence were selected. And then, 4 models for predicting the area of grasshopper occurrence were established by using the successive regression and tested. The area of grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang from 2004 to 2006 were predicted with these models, then the predicted and actual results were compared and a model, its accuracy rate for prediction was more than 85%, was selected. Meanwhile, the relationship between the factors of atmospheric circulation and the area of grasshopper occurrence were analyzed.