CAJ | 학술논문

为分析洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害在千年尺度序列上的演变趋势,采用统计历史洪涝记录的方法,分析了气候变化背景下洪涝灾害的响应过程,探讨了洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害同El Ni(n)o事件的关系.结果表明:近1 000 a来洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害的频度总体是趋于上升的,这种变化趋势同气候变化的趋势是一致的.研究结果显示:公元1000～1400年洪涝记录偏少,同我国东部地区尤其是中世纪暖期出现的一次200 a以上的干旱化过程有较好的对应性.1400～1800年是洪泽湖流域洪涝的多发期,这一事实同我国东部1550～1850年小冰期期间总体偏湿的环境特征相一致.分析洪涝灾害变化同El Ni(n)o事件对应性关系表明:在El Ni(n)o事件年及其次年是洪泽湖流域洪涝的多发年份.这可能是由于El Ni(n)o事件通过改变西太平洋副高的强度与位置,以及大气环流形势而引起的降水异常所致.了解洪泽湖流域洪涝的演变趋势及其同El Ni(n)o的关系对于长期防灾减灾策略具有重要的参考意义.
위분석홍택호류역홍로재해재천년척도서렬상적연변추세,채용통계역사홍로기록적방법,분석료기후변화배경하홍로재해적향응과정,탐토료홍택호류역홍로재해동El Ni(n)o사건적관계.결과표명:근1 000 a래홍택호류역홍로재해적빈도총체시추우상승적,저충변화추세동기후변화적추세시일치적.연구결과현시:공원1000～1400년홍로기록편소,동아국동부지구우기시중세기난기출현적일차200 a이상적간한화과정유교호적대응성.1400～1800년시홍택호류역홍로적다발기,저일사실동아국동부1550～1850년소빙기기간총체편습적배경특정상일치.분석홍로재해변화동El Ni(n)o사건대응성관계표명:재El Ni(n)o사건년급기차년시홍택호류역홍로적다발년빈.저가능시유우El Ni(n)o사건통과개변서태평양부고적강도여위치,이급대기배류형세이인기적강수이상소치.료해홍택호류역홍로적연변추세급기동El Ni(n)o적관계대우장기방재감재책략구유중요적삼고의의.
Statistically collected historical flood records in different archives are analyzed to detect the flooding trend on a millennium scale in Hongze lake catchment,and floods responding to the climate change and its relationship with the El Nino events are identified. Results show that the frequency of the flood disaster has a generally upward trend in Hongze lake catchment, which suggests a good accordance to the trend of the climate change in the last millennium. During the periods of 1000～1400, records of flood are relatively lower,which reveals a direct response to the climate change during the Medieval Warm Period,in which an over 200 years drought period is detected. Similarly,during the periods of 1400～1800,records of floods are higher,demonstrating a close accordance to the climate change in the Little Ice Age from 1550 to 1850 which showed a relatively wetter environment in eastern China. Also, the contrasting relations between the floods and the El Nino events reveal that,big flood disasters are possible to occur in the year of the El Nino events and the year after the El Nino events in Hongze Lake catchment. The strength and location of the subtropical high in the western Pacific Ocean region and the changed atmospherical circulation caused by the El Nino events,which resulted in the abnormal excess precipitation in Hongze Lake catchment, can possibly serve as the physical mechanism of this phenomenon. Understanding this information may be of great help to flood mitigation and to effective decision-making for long-term flood management strategies in this area.