CAJ | 학술논문

南水北调中线T程的实施,对汉江中下游流域的生态环境会造成一系列的影响,对其进行综合评价具有重要意义.在探讨评价指标体系建立原则的基础上,构建了南水北调中线工程对汉江中下游流域生态环境影响的综合评价指标体系;对各指标的影响分值进行了计算,并采用层次分析法了计算各指标的权重,在此基础上采用指标加权求和法对生态环境影响进行综合评价.评价结果表明:南水北调中线工程的实施,对汉江中下游流域生态环境的综合影响程度为-37.91%～-64.46%,相比调水前,生态环境处于强烈或明显负影响状态;分变量的影响程度排序依次为水质变量、土壤地质变量、社会生产变量、水生生物变量、水资源变量和气候变量,其中对水质变量、土壤地质变量、社会生产变量和水生生物变量的影响幅度上限均超过了-40%,对水资源变量的影响幅度也超过了-20%,影响较大,而对气象变量的影响幅度几乎为零.
남수북조중선T정적실시,대한강중하유류역적생태배경회조성일계렬적영향,대기진행종합평개구유중요의의.재탐토평개지표체계건립원칙적기출상,구건료남수북조중선공정대한강중하유류역생태배경영향적종합평개지표체계;대각지표적영향분치진행료계산,병채용층차분석법료계산각지표적권중,재차기출상채용지표가권구화법대생태배경영향진행종합평개.평개결과표명:남수북조중선공정적실시,대한강중하유류역생태배경적종합영향정도위-37.91%～-64.46%,상비조수전,생태배경처우강렬혹명현부영향상태;분변량적영향정도배서의차위수질변량、토양지질변량、사회생산변량、수생생물변량、수자원변량화기후변량,기중대수질변량、토양지질변량、사회생산변량화수생생물변량적영향폭도상한균초과료-40%,대수자원변량적영향폭도야초과료-20%,영향교대,이대기상변량적영향폭도궤호위령.
The South to North Water Transfer Project, one of the four largest trans-century pro-jects in China, may produce a series of influence on eco-environment in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. So it will be of great significance to carry out an overall evaluation of this project. Based on the principle of building evaluation index system discussed in advance, an overall evaluation index system was built to assess the effects of the south to north water trans-fer project on eco-environment in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin. Af-ter building an index core quantification model, the score of each index was calculated and the weight of each indicator was decided by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Then weighted summation of each index was used to make the overall evaluation of the project on eco-environment. The result showed that the construction of the project would produce -37.91% ～ -64.46% of effects on the change of eco-environment over the middle-lower Hanjiang River basin, which should have a strong or significant negative impact. And among the six eco-environment variables, the order from strong to weak in the extent was water equality, soil-geological variables, society production, aquicolous biology, water resource and climate respectively. In these variables, the upper effect magnitude of the project on water equality, social production, soil-geological and aquicolous biology variables exceed -40% and on water resource variable also exceed -20%. In terms of the five levels of eco-environmental impacts, including no, minor, significant, strong and extreme impacts, water equality was in the state of extreme or strong negative impact, soil-geolog-ical variable belonged to a strong, significant or extreme negative impact and social production be-longed to a strong or significant negative impact state, aquicolous biology variables received a strong negative impact, water resource was in the state of significant negative impact, but climate in the minor negative impact state and the magnitude was close to zero.