CAJ | 학술논문

利用WRF中尺度模式模拟了台风"圣帕"登陆后减弱成热带低压造成湖南省大暴雨的过程,使用模拟输出的高分辨率资料,借助非地转湿Q矢量对这次暴雨过程做了详细的诊断分析.结果表明:非地转湿Q矢量能比较清楚地揭示此次暴雨演变过程,尤其700 hPa的非地转湿Q矢量散度场对降水预报具有较好的指示意义,其散度辐合区域对应着降水的落区,散度辐合强度变化指示着降水强度的变化趋势,并且非地转湿Q矢量散度辐合强度的大小可预示着未来3～6 h降水的强弱,是具有预报价值的;非地转湿Q矢量散度是非地转ω方程的强迫项,并与地形条件共同作用激发了地面中尺度系统的发展与次级环流的形成,是此次暴雨得以发展与维持的机制.
이용WRF중척도모식모의료태풍"골파"등륙후감약성열대저압조성호남성대폭우적과정,사용모의수출적고분변솔자료,차조비지전습Q시량대저차폭우과정주료상세적진단분석.결과표명:비지전습Q시량능비교청초지게시차차폭우연변과정,우기700 hPa적비지전습Q시량산도장대강수예보구유교호적지시의의,기산도복합구역대응착강수적락구,산도복합강도변화지시착강수강도적변화추세,병차비지전습Q시량산도복합강도적대소가예시착미래3～6 h강수적강약,시구유예보개치적;비지전습Q시량산도시비지전ω방정적강박항,병여지형조건공동작용격발료지면중척도계통적발전여차급배류적형성,시차차폭우득이발전여유지적궤제.
Mesoscale model WRF has been used to simulate the course of heavy rainstorm caused by typhoon "Sepat" being weakened to tropic cyclone after landing in Hunan province, which provides the high resolution output data, detailed diagnostic analysis on the rainstorm is done with method of ageostrophic wet Q vector. It shows that, the ageostrophic wet Q vector can reveal the evolvement of rainstorm clearly, especially at the 700hPa layer it has good direction for precipitation forecast, its convergence area corresponds to precipitation area and its convergence intensity gives guidance for the variation of precipitation intensity, besides its convergence intensity can foreeast precipitation in the coming 3～6 hours; the divergence of ageostrophic wet Q vector was taken as an only forcing term in the whole ω-equation, which motivates development of surface mesoscale system and formation of secondary circulation accompanied with terrain. Both factors are the mechanism to maintain rainstorm.