CAJ | 학술논문

年度、月度措施产量是多因素影响的灰色本征系统。根据灰色理论的基本原理提出措施产量的多项式预测模型、组合预测模型与GM(1.1)预测模型。文中对具有突变性单调或非单调的初始序列所建立的预测模型进行了多次残差修正与周期修正，使其预测误差在控制范围内。同时提出对定量预测模型进行定性调整，使之更符合实际。在实际计算中是多种预测模型的综合应用。该预测方法改变了过去仅凭经验预测措施产量的状况，具有科学性、实用性和可操作性。经实例计算证明是可行的。
년도、월도조시산량시다인소영향적회색본정계통。근거회색이론적기본원리제출조시산량적다항식예측모형、조합예측모형여GM(1.1)예측모형。문중대구유돌변성단조혹비단조적초시서렬소건립적예측모형진행료다차잔차수정여주기수정，사기예측오차재공제범위내。동시제출대정량예측모형진행정성조정，사지경부합실제。재실제계산중시다충예측모형적종합응용。해예측방법개변료과거부빙경험예측조시산량적상황，구유과학성、실용성화가조작성。경실례계산증명시가행적。
Annual and monthly measurement rate is the gray origi nal character systems influenced by multi-factor.Multinomial forecast model,ass embled forecast model and GM(1.1)forecast model of measurement rate is proposed according to the basic principle of gray theory.The established forecast model o f mutation monotone or nomonotone initial sequence adjusted by residual error am endment and period amendment several times.Fewer errors are found between the fo recast and true production.The quantificational forecast model is adjusted to ac cord with the reality of the comprehensive application of many types of models a t actual computation.The situation that forecasting measurement rate only relies on experience in the past is changed.It is a kind of scientific,practical and m aneuverable method and it has been proved to be feasible by actual examples.