地震学报（英文版）
地震學報（英文版）
지진학보（영문판）
ACTA SEISMOLOGICA SINICA
2004年
5期
585-588
,共4页
黎令仪%刘德富%康春丽%韩延本
黎令儀%劉德富%康春麗%韓延本
려령의%류덕부%강춘려%한연본
seismic tendency%self-rhythm%numerical model%prediction
Considering the deficiency of using vague language in predicting monthly seismic tendency, we propose a numerical predicting method in the paper, which may be more applicable to the society. The method is based on the "self-rhythm" phenomenon of earthquake activities, which calculates monthly seismic tendency through nonlinear mathematical model. The result of modeling test shows that there exists a kind of seismic cyclic process of every 7 to 8 months in Chinese mainland, and the average error from comparing monthly predicted and observed earthquake magnitudes is below 0.2. Thus the method is more applicable to the society than the experiential prediction.
