CAJ | 학술논문

水资源优化配置是水资源管理中重要且复杂的课题.随着我国“千亿斤粮食增产计划”的提出,作为重要粮食产区的松花江流域面临着水资源能否承载粮食增产的迫切问题.然而,至今该区域鲜有涉及到粮食增产计划的水资源配置研究.本文选取松花江流域的哈尔滨市为研究对象,通过建立多目标规划模型,得到该区域2020年和2030年(p=75％)的水资源优化配置方案.配置结果可将各分区按农业生产潜力划分为4类:第一类为哈尔滨市区.随着城镇化进程加快,哈尔滨市区将会成为农业用水最为短缺的分区.在此形势下,哈尔滨市区的粮食增产空间很小；第二类为五常、尚志和宾县分区.分区内也存在农业用水短缺的现象.但由于短缺程度较小,如能加大节水措施和水利工程措施的建设力度,尚有粮食增产的可能；第三类为阿城、呼兰、木兰和方正分区.伴随着城镇化进程的进一步加快,分区内将会产生一定的农业用水短缺风险.根据分区情况,可通过加强节水措施建设来消除风险.分区内具备一定规模的粮食增产空间；第四类为双城、巴彦、依兰、延寿和通河等水资源条件较好的分区.分区内具备农业大规模发展的潜力.应提高水、土资源开发利用程度以确保粮食增产.研究成果可为制定哈尔滨地区实现区域水资源可持续利用的粮食增产计划提供科学建议和决策依据.
수자원우화배치시수자원관리중중요차복잡적과제.수착아국“천억근양식증산계화”적제출,작위중요양식산구적송화강류역면림착수자원능부승재양식증산적박절문제.연이,지금해구역선유섭급도양식증산계화적수자원배치연구.본문선취송화강류역적합이빈시위연구대상,통과건립다목표규화모형,득도해구역2020년화2030년(p=75％)적수자원우화배치방안.배치결과가장각분구안농업생산잠력화분위4류:제일류위합이빈시구.수착성진화진정가쾌,합이빈시구장회성위농업용수최위단결적분구.재차형세하,합이빈시구적양식증산공간흔소；제이류위오상、상지화빈현분구.분구내야존재농업용수단결적현상.단유우단결정도교소,여능가대절수조시화수리공정조시적건설력도,상유양식증산적가능；제삼류위아성、호란、목란화방정분구.반수착성진화진정적진일보가쾌,분구내장회산생일정적농업용수단결풍험.근거분구정황,가통과가강절수조시건설래소제풍험.분구내구비일정규모적양식증산공간；제사류위쌍성、파언、의란、연수화통하등수자원조건교호적분구.분구내구비농업대규모발전적잠력.응제고수、토자원개발이용정도이학보양식증산.연구성과가위제정합이빈지구실현구역수자원가지속이용적양식증산계화제공과학건의화결책의거.
Water resource allocation (WRA) is a useful but complicated topic in water resource management.With the targets set out in the Plan of Newly Increasing Yield (NIY) of 10×1011Jin (1kg=2Jin) from 2009 to 2020,the immediate question for the Songhua River Region (SHRR) is whether water is sufficient to support the required yield increase.Very few studies have considered to what degree this plan influences the solution of WRA and how to adapt.This paper used a multi-objective programming model for WRA across the Harbin region located in the SHRR in 2020 and 2030 (p=75％).The Harbin region can be classified into four types of sub-regions according to WRA:Type Ⅰ is Harbin city zone.With rapid urbanization,Harbin city zone has the highest risk of agricultural water shortage.Considering the severe situation,there is little space for Harbin city zone to reach the NIY goal.Type Ⅱ is sub-regions including Wuchang,Shangzhi and Binxian.There are some agricultural water shortage risks in this type region.Because the water shortage is relatively small,it is possible to increase agricultural production through strengthening agricultural water-saving countermeasures and constructing water conservation facilities.Type Ⅲ is sub-regions including Acheng,Hulan,Mulan and Fangzheng.In this type region,there may be a water shortage if the rate of urbanization accelerates.According to local conditions,it is needed to enhance water-saving countermeasures to increase agricultural production to a certain degree.Type Ⅳ is sub-regions including Shuangcheng,Bayan,Yilan,Yanshou and Tonghe.There are good water conditions for the extensive development of agriculture.Nevertheless,in order to ensure an increase in agricultural production,it is necessary to enhance the way in which water is utilized and consider soil resources.These results will help decision makers make a scientific NIY plan for the Harbin region for sustainable utilization of regional water resources and an increase in agricultural production.