热带气象学报(英文版)
熱帶氣象學報(英文版)
열대기상학보(영문판)
JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY
2003年
1期
41-48
,共8页
tropical cyclone motion%ensemble forecast%typhoon numerical forecast
Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) motion was studied usinga primitive equation barotropic model by perturbing initial position and structure for 1979 - 1993 TC. The results show that TC initial position perturbation affects its track, but the ensemble mean is close to control forecast. Experiments was also performed by perturbing TC initial parameters which were used to generate TC initial field, and more improvement can be obtained by taking ensemble mean of selective member than selecting members randomly. The skill of 60 % - 70 % of all cases is improved in selective ensemble mean. When the ambient steeringcurrent is weak, more improvement can be obtained over the control forecast.
