CAJ | 학술논문

介绍了美国中加州帕克菲尔德(Parkfield)地震预报实验场的建设、运行和试验场工作期间发生的2004年6级地震的情况.着重阐述了在实验场20多年的地震预测研究中遇到的一系列科学同题以及一些新的认识.这些科学认识包括:对活动构造破裂分段的研究是地震长期预测的基础;无震滑动是地震预测中的一大难点和障碍;地震复发模型具有的相当大的不确定性且在预测应用上有很大的局限性;地震前兆的复杂性、差异性及其对地震预测中常用原则--前兆异常重现性和相似性的挑战等.这些认识对地震预测研究与实验场建设有一定的启示意义.
개소료미국중가주파극비이덕(Parkfield)지진예보실험장적건설、운행화시험장공작기간발생적2004년6급지진적정황.착중천술료재실험장20다년적지진예측연구중우도적일계렬과학동제이급일사신적인식.저사과학인식포괄:대활동구조파렬분단적연구시지진장기예측적기출;무진활동시지진예측중적일대난점화장애;지진복발모형구유적상당대적불학정성차재예측응용상유흔대적국한성;지진전조적복잡성、차이성급기대지진예측중상용원칙--전조이상중현성화상사성적도전등.저사인식대지진예측연구여실험장건설유일정적계시의의.
It describes the construction and operation of Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment in California, USA and circumstance about the 2004 M6.0 earthquake during the experiment. Focuses are given on a series of scientific problems and their new understandings in the 20 years of earthquake prediction research. These scientific understandings include the sub-ruptures of active geological structure, which is the base of long-term earthquake prediction, the aseismic slip, which is one of major difficulties and obstacles for earthquake prediction, earthquake recurrence models, which amuse considerable uncertainty and have significant limitation in forecasting application and the complexity and the differences of earthquake precursors which are challenges to principles usually used in earthquake prediction, such as reproducibility and similarity of precursor. These understandings have certain significance to earthquake prediction research and the construction of experiment.