CAJ | 학술논문

数学模型是一个重要的工具,可以很好地帮助科学家和政府决策人员进行规划和预测.最近几十年来,数学模型、经验模型和基于过程的计算机模型的大量涌现,为现代生态学的发展做出了巨大的贡献.其中森林生态系统过程模型就是一类非常重要的林业模型.FORECAST模型,是一个基于森林生态系统过程的林分水平模型.它可以模拟多种管理策略对森林的影响,而且能够预测森林生态系统结构和功能的未来发展趋势,帮助我们制定合适的管理策略,为森林生态系统的优化管理服务.主要从FORECAST模型的发展概况、原理、方法和实际应用,并针对目前该模型的优势和局限性进行了简介.图2表1参14
수학모형시일개중요적공구,가이흔호지방조과학가화정부결책인원진행규화화예측.최근궤십년래,수학모형、경험모형화기우과정적계산궤모형적대량용현,위현대생태학적발전주출료거대적공헌.기중삼림생태계통과정모형취시일류비상중요적임업모형.FORECAST모형,시일개기우삼림생태계통과정적림분수평모형.타가이모의다충관리책략대삼림적영향,이차능구예측삼림생태계통결구화공능적미래발전추세,방조아문제정합괄적관리책략,위삼림생태계통적우화관리복무.주요종FORECAST모형적발전개황、원리、방법화실제응용,병침대목전해모형적우세화국한성진행료간개.도2표1삼14
Mathematical model is an important tool to help scientists and good government policy makers with planning and forecasting. In recent decades, large number of mathematical models, experience models and models based On the process have emerged, and made tremendous contributions to the development of modern ecology. Model of forest ecosystem processes is a very important forestry model. FORECAST is a model based on the process of forest ecosystems stand level. It can simulate a variety of effects that manage-ment strategies impose on forests, predict the development trend of the structure and function of the forest ecosystem and help us formulate appropriate management strategies for forest ecosystems optimizing manage ment services. This article makes a simple introduction to the development of FORECAST model, principles, methods and practical applications, and its strengths and limitations. [Ch, 2 fig. 1 tab. 14 ref. ]