合肥工业大学学报：社会科学版
閤肥工業大學學報：社會科學版
합비공업대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences)
2011年
6期
26-31
,共6页
城乡规划%人口规划%皖江城市带%常住人口
城鄉規劃%人口規劃%皖江城市帶%常住人口
성향규화%인구규화%환강성시대%상주인구
urban and rural planning%population projection%urban belt along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province%de jure population
基于常态人口发展的继承性、连贯性,可确立皖江城市带合肥、芜湖等9市2020年户籍人口总量的上限;基于新一轮城乡规划中2020年人口规划目标,可直观地＂解析＂出同期外来常住人口总量的下限。然基于户籍人口、常住人口、外来人口等总量变动的常态性特征与内在相关性特征,适用＂归谬法＂可直观地解读出当前城乡发展规划中有关未来人口规划目标的＂虚夸＂成分,进而＂质疑＂新一轮城乡发展规划目标设立的理性和科学性。
基于常態人口髮展的繼承性、連貫性,可確立皖江城市帶閤肥、蕪湖等9市2020年戶籍人口總量的上限;基于新一輪城鄉規劃中2020年人口規劃目標,可直觀地＂解析＂齣同期外來常住人口總量的下限。然基于戶籍人口、常住人口、外來人口等總量變動的常態性特徵與內在相關性特徵,適用＂歸謬法＂可直觀地解讀齣噹前城鄉髮展規劃中有關未來人口規劃目標的＂虛誇＂成分,進而＂質疑＂新一輪城鄉髮展規劃目標設立的理性和科學性。
기우상태인구발전적계승성、련관성,가학립환강성시대합비、무호등9시2020년호적인구총량적상한;기우신일륜성향규화중2020년인구규화목표,가직관지＂해석＂출동기외래상주인구총량적하한。연기우호적인구、상주인구、외래인구등총량변동적상태성특정여내재상관성특정,괄용＂귀류법＂가직관지해독출당전성향발전규화중유관미래인구규화목표적＂허과＂성분,진이＂질의＂신일륜성향발전규화목표설립적이성화과학성。
Base on the inheritance and continuity of the development of de jure population,the upper limit of the registered population in 2020 is estimated for nine cities such as Hefei,Wuhu,etc,in the urban belt along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province.So does the lower limit of immigrated population in 2020 based on the analysis of the population projection in newly-made urban and rural planning.In view of the normal characteristic of population development and the inherent relation among registered population,De jure population and immigrated non-registered population,the ＂exaggeration＂ in the population projection in current urban and rural planning is pointed out by using the method of ＂induction to absurdity＂.Thus the rationality and scientificity of the population projection in newly-made urban and rural planning can be clarified.
