CAJ | 학술논문

利用四川省1978—2008年统计数据,采用协整方法估测了消费增长的就业效应。研究发现,从总量上看,当前和未来四川省消费增长的就业弹性分别为0.166和0.10,并且在统计意义上十分显著。Granger因果检验发现,从短期来看,就业和消费增长之间并不存在显著的因果关系;从长期来看,就业和消费增长之间互为因果关系。前述结论的政策含义在于：短期内,政府主导型投资应向拉动消费和推动就业的产业倾斜;长期内,扩大内需刺激消费的经济发展方式应从政府投资拉动型向居民消费拉动型转变。
이용사천성1978—2008년통계수거,채용협정방법고측료소비증장적취업효응。연구발현,종총량상간,당전화미래사천성소비증장적취업탄성분별위0.166화0.10,병차재통계의의상십분현저。Granger인과검험발현,종단기래간,취업화소비증장지간병불존재현저적인과관계;종장기래간,취업화소비증장지간호위인과관계。전술결론적정책함의재우：단기내,정부주도형투자응향랍동소비화추동취업적산업경사;장기내,확대내수자격소비적경제발전방식응종정부투자랍동형향거민소비랍동형전변。
Based on the data of sichuan province from 1978 to 2008, this paper uses a cointegration approach to estimates the effects on employment of consumption growth. Totally, the employment elasticity of consumption growth in current and future for Sichuan Province are 0. 166 and 0. 10 respectively, which are statically significant. Granger causality test further show that the causal relationship between employment and consumption growth is not significant in the short run. However, in the long run, both factors simultaneously affect each other. The policy implications of the above findings are as follows, in the short term, government-led investment should be in favor of industries which would promote consumption and employment; in the long term, it necessary to transfer the mode of economic development from the government investment - led to consumer - led to the benefit of expanding domestic demand and of boosting consumption.