CAJ | 학술논문

以安徽省耕地面积及农业经济增长1990—2009年时间序列数据为例，通过单位根检验、协整和Granger因果检验，明确两时间序列的依存和因果关系。研究表明，安徽省耕地面积和农业产值之间存在长期均衡关系，耕地面积是农业产值的原因，而农业产值不是耕地面积的原因，通过加大农业科技投入、构建高产高效的生态集约农业生产体系和推进农业产业化，提高耕地资源的综合产出率至关重要。此外，要确定合理耕地占用量，着力解决当前土地产权制度不完全情况下“征用＋批租”模式的外部性问题。
이안휘성경지면적급농업경제증장1990—2009년시간서렬수거위례，통과단위근검험、협정화Granger인과검험，명학량시간서렬적의존화인과관계。연구표명，안휘성경지면적화농업산치지간존재장기균형관계，경지면적시농업산치적원인，이농업산치불시경지면적적원인，통과가대농업과기투입、구건고산고효적생태집약농업생산체계화추진농업산업화，제고경지자원적종합산출솔지관중요。차외，요학정합리경지점용량，착력해결당전토지산권제도불완전정황하“정용＋비조”모식적외부성문제。
Taking Anhui Province as and Grange causality test to analyze an example, this paper carries out Unit root test, Johansen cointegration test the dependencies between agricultural economic growth and arable land area with the time series from 1990 to 2009. The result shows that there is a long - term dynamic equilibrium relation- ship between arable land area and agricultural output, arable land area is the causality of agricultural output, while agricultural output isn＇ t the causality of arable land area. It is very important for Anhui Province to take measures to improve the comprehensive productivity of arable land. Promoting agricultural industrialization, in- creasing agricultural science and technology input, establishing high yield, efficient and co - intensive ecological agriculture production systems are advised. In addition, cupied and spare no efforts solve the externality issue of incomplete land property rights System nowadays. they should reasonably prescribe the arable land area oc- the ＂Acquisition ＋ Lease＂ Model under the conditions of