CAJ | 학술논문

为了有效地预测块裂岩质边坡发生崩塌的时间,基于灰色理论和突变理论建立了灰色-突变预测模型.首先运用灰色理论对声发射监测数据进行处理,得到预测数据,运用最小二乘曲线拟合展开,再通过微分同胚变换,转换为尖点突变模型的基本形式,从而建立了灰色突变预测模型.最后采用该模型对贵毕公路k79+380～k79+500右边坡的崩塌时间进行了预测,预测结果和实际崩塌时间基本一致,表明该模型可以有效地预测块裂岩质边坡的崩塌.
위료유효지예측괴렬암질변파발생붕탑적시간,기우회색이론화돌변이론건립료회색-돌변예측모형.수선운용회색이론대성발사감측수거진행처리,득도예측수거,운용최소이승곡선의합전개,재통과미분동배변환,전환위첨점돌변모형적기본형식,종이건립료회색돌변예측모형.최후채용해모형대귀필공로k79+380～k79+500우변파적붕탑시간진행료예측,예측결과화실제붕탑시간기본일치,표명해모형가이유효지예측괴렬암질변파적붕탑.
In order to effectively predict the failure time of slope collapse of block rockmass, a gray-catastrophic prediction model is proposed based on the gray and the catastrophic theories. In this model, the monitored acoustic emission information is changed into prediction data based on the gray theory, and the prediction data are transformed into an essential format of cusp catastrophic model via the least-square principle curve fitting and the differential coefficient homeomorphous change. The proposed model is then used to predict the failure time of k79+380～k79+500 right slope of Gui-Bi highway, and the predicted results basically accord with the actual ones. It is thus concluded that the proposed model is effective in predicting the failure time of slope collapse of block rockmass.