CAJ | 학술논문

在吉林省柳河县绿色稻米生产区,采用1999～2001年间3月1日后有效积温和水稻二化螟诱捕器诱蛾量数据,用线性模型探讨了当地有效积温和诱捕器诱蛾量之间的关系.由建立的线性模型确定越冬代水稻二化螟发蛾始盛期、高峰期和盛末期所需有效积温分别为238.323、339.418和483.398日·度.采用吉林长春稻区2002～2004年3年间数据比较模型预测值和观察值之间的差异,有效积温的误差值在3.882～26.943日·度之间,相应时间误差为0～3天.模型预测准确性较好,可用以及时指导大田防治.
재길림성류하현록색도미생산구,채용1999～2001년간3월1일후유효적온화수도이화명유포기유아량수거,용선성모형탐토료당지유효적온화유포기유아량지간적관계.유건립적선성모형학정월동대수도이화명발아시성기、고봉기화성말기소수유효적온분별위238.323、339.418화483.398일·도.채용길림장춘도구2002～2004년3년간수거비교모형예측치화관찰치지간적차이,유효적온적오차치재3.882～26.943일·도지간,상응시간오차위0～3천.모형예측준학성교호,가용이급시지도대전방치.
A linear forecasting model to monitor the spring emergence and flight pattern of the overwintering generation of the rice stem borer, Chilo suppressalis (Walker), in northeastern China was developed. The model is based on the correlation between the pheromone trap catches and corresponding degree-days (DDs) calculated from 1 March above the threshold of 12.9℃ in Liuhe, Jilin in 1999 - 2000. Overwintering adults generally begin to appear in Liuhe rice fields after 126.995 cumulative DDs.The DD accumulations from 1 March corresponding to the capture of 10%, 50% and 90% of all male moths throughout the flight season were 238. 323, 339.418 and 483. 398, respectively. The comparison of the predicted results with the observed data in three years (2002 - 2004) in Changchun city verified the reliability of the log-probit line forecasting model, which indicated that the error of DDs varied from 3. 882 to 26. 943, and the corresponding error of dates (between the observed and predicted dates)was 0 - 3 days. In rice-producing regions in northeastern China, farmers could use the results of the forecasting model to help make decisions for the effective control of the rice stem borer.