CAJ | 학술논문

采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了 F_(10.7)中期预报研究.预报试验和误差分析结果表明,在太阳活动水平较低、F_(10.7)的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高,具有较为理想的预报效果,但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想.这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F_(10.7)的27天周期性特征,对F_(10.7)中期预报的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出,自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当.
채용시간서렬모형중적자회귀방법개전료 F_(10.7)중기예보연구.예보시험화오차분석결과표명,재태양활동수평교저、F_(10.7)적27천주기성명현시자회귀예보방법적예보정도고,구유교위이상적예보효과,단재일면유대활동구산생화소망시예보효과불이상.저설명시간서렬모형중적자회귀방법능구교호지반영태양F_(10.7)적27천주기성특정,대F_(10.7)중기예보적건립유일정괄용성.통과대2005년9월21일지2007년6월7일기간예보결과적비교가이간출,자회귀분석방법예보적정도여미국공군예보적상당.
Due to the application requirement of high layer atmosphere density model and ionosphere model,the forecast method research of 10.7cm solar radio flux (F_(10.7) index) is one of the important subjects.The middle term forecast of F_(10.7) is more difficult than the long term and short term forecast because of the lack of comprehending physical progress and the laws of solar active region revolution.The main middle term forecast methods of F_(10.7) are time-sequence model and empirical model in consideration of observational information of solar active region.In this paper,autoregression method was applied to the F_(10.7) 27-day forecast research.The period of forecast experiment was from May 1,1996 to April 12,2007.According to the results of forecast error analysis,the prediction procision was satisfying when solar activity was low and F_(10.7) showed obvious 27-day periodic tendency,but was unsatisfying when large region appeared on the disk or disappeared from the disk rapidly.Compared with the forecast result of American Air Force (AAF) forecast from September 21,2005 to June 7,2006,the prediction Accuracy of autoregression method was similar to that of AAF.From all of these,we can see this linear predictive method could reflect F_(10.7) 27-day periodicity,and was applicable for F_(10.7) 27-day forecast in a certain extent.The research result in this paper is a basis of the further work of constructing procise model of F_(10.7)middle term forecast.