安徽农业科学
安徽農業科學
안휘농업과학
JOURNAL OF ANHUI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
2009年
35期
17564-17566
,共3页
平凉黄土高原沟壑区%气温%降水量%变化趋势
平涼黃土高原溝壑區%氣溫%降水量%變化趨勢
평량황토고원구학구%기온%강수량%변화추세
Pingliang Gully Region of Loess Plateau%Temperature%Precipitation%Change trend
[目的]研究平凉黄土高原沟壑区气温和降水变化,全面了解当地气候变化特点和未来发展趋势.[方法]采用线性倾向估计法对平凉黄土高原沟壑区近50年的年平均气温和年降水量的变化特点进行分析,用累积距平法和Mann-Kendall法对气候突变进行分析检测,并用重标极差(R/S)法对其未来气候变化趋势进行分析.[结果]近50年平凉黄土高原沟壑区气温呈上升趋势,气温变化率为0.26 ℃/10年,降水呈减少趋势,降水变化率为-20.2 mm/10年;气温的Hurst指数为0.90,降水量的Hurst指数为0.62,预示未来气温上升和降水减少的趋势还将持续;气温的突变发生在1997年,而年降水量的突变发生在1991年,二者的突变时间不同步.[结论]以气温升高降水减少为主要特征的气候变化将对平凉黄土高原沟壑区农业生产产生不利影响.
[目的]研究平涼黃土高原溝壑區氣溫和降水變化,全麵瞭解噹地氣候變化特點和未來髮展趨勢.[方法]採用線性傾嚮估計法對平涼黃土高原溝壑區近50年的年平均氣溫和年降水量的變化特點進行分析,用纍積距平法和Mann-Kendall法對氣候突變進行分析檢測,併用重標極差(R/S)法對其未來氣候變化趨勢進行分析.[結果]近50年平涼黃土高原溝壑區氣溫呈上升趨勢,氣溫變化率為0.26 ℃/10年,降水呈減少趨勢,降水變化率為-20.2 mm/10年;氣溫的Hurst指數為0.90,降水量的Hurst指數為0.62,預示未來氣溫上升和降水減少的趨勢還將持續;氣溫的突變髮生在1997年,而年降水量的突變髮生在1991年,二者的突變時間不同步.[結論]以氣溫升高降水減少為主要特徵的氣候變化將對平涼黃土高原溝壑區農業生產產生不利影響.
[목적]연구평량황토고원구학구기온화강수변화,전면료해당지기후변화특점화미래발전추세.[방법]채용선성경향고계법대평량황토고원구학구근50년적년평균기온화년강수량적변화특점진행분석,용루적거평법화Mann-Kendall법대기후돌변진행분석검측,병용중표겁차(R/S)법대기미래기후변화추세진행분석.[결과]근50년평량황토고원구학구기온정상승추세,기온변화솔위0.26 ℃/10년,강수정감소추세,강수변화솔위-20.2 mm/10년;기온적Hurst지수위0.90,강수량적Hurst지수위0.62,예시미래기온상승화강수감소적추세환장지속;기온적돌변발생재1997년,이년강수량적돌변발생재1991년,이자적돌변시간불동보.[결론]이기온승고강수감소위주요특정적기후변화장대평량황토고원구학구농업생산산생불리영향.
[Objective] The character of climatic variation and its future trend in Pingliang Gully Region of Loess Plateau were completely understood through the research on the change of temperature and precipitation in the region. [Method] The variation character of annual average temperature and precipitation of past 50 years in the region was analyzed with the method of linear trend evaluation. The abrupt change of climatic factor was tested with the method of cumulative departure and Mann-Kendall. And the trend of its future change was analyzed with R/S. [Results] The results showed that annual temperature in the Pingliang Gully Region of Loess Plateau was increasing in last 50 years with a change rate of 0.26 ℃ per a decade year and annual precipitation was declining with a change rate of 20.2 mm per a decade year. The Hurst index of temperature was 0.90 and the Hurst index of precipitation was 0.62, which indicated that the trends would be going on in the future. The point of abrupt change of temperature happened in 1997, while annual precipitation, in 1991 and the abrupt change of temperature and precipitation was not occurring simultaneously. [Conclusion] The variation of the raising of temperature and the reduction of precipitation in the region could cause the bad effect on agricultural production.
