CAJ | 학술논문

采用河南省1993～2009年出口额、FDI与GDP的时间序列数据,运用Johansen-Juselius协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解的计量方法,实证研究河南省出口贸易、FDI对其经济增长的影响。研究结果显示：出口贸易与GDP、FDI与GDP之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系和显著的Granger因果关系;出口贸易、FDI对河南省经济增长都有较强的促进作用,它们对经济增长的脉冲响应总体上都是正向响应,但出口比FDI对经济增长的推动作用更强一些。最后根据研究结果提出加快出口、FDI增长以带动GDP增长的建议。
채용하남성1993～2009년출구액、FDI여GDP적시간서렬수거,운용Johansen-Juselius협정검험、맥충향응함수화방차분해적계량방법,실증연구하남성출구무역、FDI대기경제증장적영향。연구결과현시：출구무역여GDP、FDI여GDP지간존재장기은정적균형관계화현저적Granger인과관계;출구무역、FDI대하남성경제증장도유교강적촉진작용,타문대경제증장적맥충향응총체상도시정향향응,단출구비FDI대경제증장적추동작용경강일사。최후근거연구결과제출가쾌출구、FDI증장이대동GDP증장적건의。
The paper studies empirically the impact of export trade,FDI to GDP in Henan province,by using time series data of exports,FDI and GDP from 1993 to 2009 and based on JJ cointegration test,impulse response function and variance decomposition.The study results show that： there is long-term and stable equilibrium relationship and significant causality existing between ＂export trade and GDP ＂ as well as ＂FDI and GDP ＂;Export trade,FDI has the effect for improving economic growth of Henan,their impulse response to economic growth is generally positive response.But export plays a more important improving role to economic growth than FDI.Finally,the paper gives suggestions about improving export、FDI in order to improve economic growth based on study results.