CAJ | 학술논문

在一维太阳风磁流体(MHD)数值模拟中,应用时空守恒元和解元(Conservation Element/SolutionElement,CE/SE)方法,建立了一个行星际激波扰动传播模型(1D-MHD (CE/SE)模型),用来预报行星际激波到达时间,收集了1997年2月至2002年8月间的137个激波事件,对激波到达地球轨道附近的传播时间进行了预测,并将预报结果与STOA,ISPM,HAFv.2以及SPM模型所得结果进行比较.对于相同的样本事件,1D-MHD(CE/SE)模型给出的渡越时间平均绝对值误差并不大于其他4个模型,且该模型预报的相对误差小于10%的事件占25.6%,小于30%的事件占69.3%,小于50%的事件占87.6%,其预报精度与其他模型相比基本相当.这表明该模型在空间天气的激波到达时间预报方面有潜在的应用价值,
재일유태양풍자류체(MHD)수치모의중,응용시공수항원화해원(Conservation Element/SolutionElement,CE/SE)방법,건립료일개행성제격파우동전파모형(1D-MHD (CE/SE)모형),용래예보행성제격파도체시간,수집료1997년2월지2002년8월간적137개격파사건,대격파도체지구궤도부근적전파시간진행료예측,병장예보결과여STOA,ISPM,HAFv.2이급SPM모형소득결과진행비교.대우상동적양본사건,1D-MHD(CE/SE)모형급출적도월시간평균절대치오차병불대우기타4개모형,차해모형예보적상대오차소우10%적사건점25.6%,소우30%적사건점69.3%,소우50%적사건점87.6%,기예보정도여기타모형상비기본상당.저표명해모형재공간천기적격파도체시간예보방면유잠재적응용개치,
A 1D-MHD shock propagation model (1D-MHD (CE/SE) model) is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1AU, using the space-time Conservation Element and Solution Element (CE/SE) method. Applying this model to 137 solar events during the period of February 1997 to August 2002, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM, HAFv.2 and SPM models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from 1D-MHD (CE/SE) model is not larger than those of the other four models for the same sample events. Also, the prediction test shows that the relative error of our modelis ≤ 10% for 25.6% of all events, ≤ 30% for 69.3%, and ≤ 50% for 87.6%, which is comparable to the relative errors of the other models. These results might demonstrate a potential capability of our model in terms of real-time forecasting.