CAJ | 학술논문

文章分析了组合预测理论,在建立由二次指数平滑预测模型、灰色预测模型、BP神经网络预测模型组成的组合预测模型库的基础上,利用以上三种单一预测模型的组合构成BP神经网络组合预测模型.分别应用单一预测模型和组合预测模型对湖南省城市生活垃圾产生量进行预测,通过分析和比较预测结果,验证了该组合预测方法的有效性.
문장분석료조합예측이론,재건립유이차지수평활예측모형、회색예측모형、BP신경망락예측모형조성적조합예측모형고적기출상,이용이상삼충단일예측모형적조합구성BP신경망락조합예측모형.분별응용단일예측모형화조합예측모형대호남성성시생활랄급산생량진행예측,통과분석화비교예측결과,험증료해조합예측방법적유효성.
By analysis of combinatorial prediction theory, a combinatorial prediction model of BP neural network was established according to the model base consisting of double exponential smoothing model, gray prediction model and BP neural network prediction model. Both separate model and the combinatorial model were used to predict the output of municipal solid waste of Hunan Province, the results of each model were eompared, which showed that the combinatorial prediction method works more effectively than the other methods.