CAJ | 학술논문

利用新疆阿勒泰地区7个测站1961-2009年逐日降水资料，统计5—9月连续无降水日数（日降水量〈0．1mm），得到该地区5—9月极端干期长度。分析近49a平均极端干期长度的空间分布特征、趋势变化及其与同期降水量的关系，并采用概率加权（PWM）估计其分布函数的参数，从而给出该地区50a-遇极值分布及≥20d的极端干期概率分布。结果表明：阿勒泰地区近49a极端干期长度的平均值及标准差的分布均为自北向南、自东向西递减，且极端干期与5—9月总降水量均呈显著负相关。极端干期趋势分析表明，该地区大部分站（除福海及布尔津站）呈现缩短趋势，尤其吉木乃和富蕴站通过了显著性检验。该地区极端干期50a-遇极值及≥20d的极端干期的概率分布，均是自东向西，自北向南递减。
이용신강아륵태지구7개측참1961-2009년축일강수자료，통계5—9월련속무강수일수（일강수량〈0．1mm），득도해지구5—9월겁단간기장도。분석근49a평균겁단간기장도적공간분포특정、추세변화급기여동기강수량적관계，병채용개솔가권（PWM）고계기분포함수적삼수，종이급출해지구50a-우겁치분포급≥20d적겁단간기개솔분포。결과표명：아륵태지구근49a겁단간기장도적평균치급표준차적분포균위자북향남、자동향서체감，차겁단간기여5—9월총강수량균정현저부상관。겁단간기추세분석표명，해지구대부분참（제복해급포이진참）정현축단추세，우기길목내화부온참통과료현저성검험。해지구겁단간기50a-우겁치급≥20d적겁단간기적개솔분포，균시자동향서，자북향남체감。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 7 stations from1961 to 2009 in Ahay region, we calculated the continuous days without precipitation （daily precipitation less than 0.1mm） and obtained the length of extreme drought period from May to September. We analyzed its spatial distribution, change trend, and relationship with contemporaneous precipitation in the recent 49 years,estimated the parameters of distribution function by the method of probability weight （PWM）, and then gave the extreme drought distribution of 50-year frequency and the probability of I〉20 d extreme drought. The results showed that the mean value and standard deviation of extreme drought period in Altay region decreased from north to south, from east to west, and the extreme dry period showed significant negative correlation with total precipitation from May to September. The trend analysis for the extreme drought period indicated that most stations （except Fuhai and Buerjin stations） shortened,especially drought of 50-year frequency and the probability north to south, from east to west. Jimunai and Fuyun. The distribution of extreme of≥20 d extreme drought both decreased from north to south, from east to west.