CAJ | 학술논문

利用哈尔滨站1881—2010年的月平均气温、1909—2010年的月总降水量和1961—2010年哈尔滨所辖区、县（市）月平均气温、月总降水量资料,采用线性趋势分析方法,计算了哈尔滨市气温、降水变化速率,分析了哈尔滨市气候变化特征;阐述了气候变化对哈尔滨市的影响。结果表明：近50 a,除巴彦7月气温略呈下降趋势外,哈尔滨市各区、县（市）各月、季、年平均气温均呈升高趋势。哈尔滨各区、县（市）各月、季、年总降水量变化趋势不一致。近130 a,哈尔滨市年、季平均气温均呈明显的上升趋势,20世纪80年代开始明显增温,21世纪开始增温尤为显著。近百年来,哈尔滨市年、季总降水量均呈减少趋势。气候变化对哈尔滨市农业、能源等方面的影响有利有弊,但对于水资源、人体健康和交通等有较大的负面影响。
이용합이빈참1881—2010년적월평균기온、1909—2010년적월총강수량화1961—2010년합이빈소할구、현（시）월평균기온、월총강수량자료,채용선성추세분석방법,계산료합이빈시기온、강수변화속솔,분석료합이빈시기후변화특정;천술료기후변화대합이빈시적영향。결과표명：근50 a,제파언7월기온략정하강추세외,합이빈시각구、현（시）각월、계、년평균기온균정승고추세。합이빈각구、현（시）각월、계、년총강수량변화추세불일치。근130 a,합이빈시년、계평균기온균정명현적상승추세,20세기80년대개시명현증온,21세기개시증온우위현저。근백년래,합이빈시년、계총강수량균정감소추세。기후변화대합이빈시농업、능원등방면적영향유리유폐,단대우수자원、인체건강화교통등유교대적부면영향。
Based on the monthly mean air temperature data at Harbin weather station from 1881 to 2010,the precipitation data from 1909 to 2010 and the air temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 at 12 weather stations,the climate change characteristics and its effects on agriculture,water resource,energy and so on in Harbin were analyzed by a linear trend method.The results indicate that the monthly,seasonal and annual mean air temperatures increase in most weather stations except in Bayan station in July in the recent 50 years.The seasonal and annual air temperatures increase significantly in the recent 130 years in Harbin and warming is apparent since 1980s,especially in 2010s.The seasonal and annual total precipitations are in decreasing trends in Harbin in the recent 100 years.The effects of climate change on agriculture and energy could be positive or negative,while the effects on water resource,human health and traffic transportation are usually negative.