CAJ | 학술논문

分析了冬、春季亚洲季风区ITCZ活动对华北夏季降水的影响。用OLR资料定义了 ITCZ综合指数，分析表明该指数能比较清晰、客观地综合反映出亚洲季风区深对流活动的强度和位置。用该指数分析了华北多雨年和少雨年前期热带大范围对流活动的变化特征。印度和东亚季风区的ITCZ活动在多雨和少雨年显示出明显不同。华北夏季降水与2-4月ITCZ综合指数的时滞相关性最明显。这种时滞相关可能与球面Rossby波的频散相联系，并可以为华北夏季降水的长期预报提供新的参考依据。低频振荡分析表明，多雨年南北两个半球的低频振荡强度较强，范围较大，并不断由南向北传播，这种传播很可能与副热带高压的北跳有关。而少雨年低频振荡在南半球或热带地区呈准静止状态。
분석료동、춘계아주계풍구ITCZ활동대화북하계강수적영향。용OLR자료정의료 ITCZ종합지수，분석표명해지수능비교청석、객관지종합반영출아주계풍구심대류활동적강도화위치。용해지수분석료화북다우년화소우년전기열대대범위대류활동적변화특정。인도화동아계풍구적ITCZ활동재다우화소우년현시출명현불동。화북하계강수여2-4월ITCZ종합지수적시체상관성최명현。저충시체상관가능여구면Rossby파적빈산상련계，병가이위화북하계강수적장기예보제공신적삼고의거。저빈진탕분석표명，다우년남북량개반구적저빈진탕강도교강，범위교대，병불단유남향북전파，저충전파흔가능여부열대고압적북도유관。이소우년저빈진탕재남반구혹열대지구정준정지상태。
Vast convective activities over tropical zones are analyzed for both wet and dry summers in North China. An ITCZ synthesis index is designed using OLR data. The index can demonstrate quite clearly and objectively the seasonal featurea of deep convection in Asia monsoon areas. The differences of ITCZ activi ties in Indian as well as East Asian monsoon regions in winter-spring period are significant and so is the time-lagged correlation, which would be able to provide a new way to the long-lead prediction of summer rain in North China. The propagation characters of low frequency fluctuation are also different between wet and dry years. The intensity of low frequency fluctuation is stronger and the area is larger in wet years than that in dry years in both hemispheres. The fluctuation moves from south to north successively in wet years, which may lead to the leap of the subtropical high northwards, while it remains quasi-stationary in the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial zone in dry years.