CAJ | 학술논문

依据聚合物驱含水率降低值与产油量变化趋势相似的特点,将产量预测模型引入聚合物驱含水率预测.分析了Weibull预测模型、广义翁氏预测模型、瑞利预测模型的特点及其对聚合物驱含水率预测的适用性.同时,通过分析影响聚合物驱含水率的因素,将聚合物驱注入量、开发时间及聚合物浓度等主要参数引入预测模型,建立了聚合物驱含水率预测的新模型.应用该模型对大庆3个聚合物驱区块的含水率进行了预测.结果表明,预测曲线与实际含水率曲线的相关系数均高于0.98,预测的含水率最低值及对应的注入量误差均小于4 %,预测结果可靠.该预测模型可用于分析聚合物驱注入量、聚合物浓度、注入速度等因素对聚合物驱含水率的影响,所需参数少,计算快,应用方便.
의거취합물구함수솔강저치여산유량변화추세상사적특점,장산량예측모형인입취합물구함수솔예측.분석료Weibull예측모형、엄의옹씨예측모형、서리예측모형적특점급기대취합물구함수솔예측적괄용성.동시,통과분석영향취합물구함수솔적인소,장취합물구주입량、개발시간급취합물농도등주요삼수인입예측모형,건립료취합물구함수솔예측적신모형.응용해모형대대경3개취합물구구괴적함수솔진행료예측.결과표명,예측곡선여실제함수솔곡선적상관계수균고우0.98,예측적함수솔최저치급대응적주입량오차균소우4 %,예측결과가고.해예측모형가용우분석취합물구주입량、취합물농도、주입속도등인소대취합물구함수솔적영향,소수삼수소,계산쾌,응용방편.
According to the similar variation of water-cut reduction to that of oil production, the oil production prediction models were applied to predict the polymer flooding water-cut reduction. The characteristics and applicability of three typical water-flooding pre-diction models in polymer flooding, including Weibull Model, General Mr. Weng Model and Ruili Model, were analyzed. The influ-ential factors for the water-cut variation in polymer flooding development were investigated. The main parameters, such as polymer concentration, pore volume of polymer injection, production time, were introduced into a new prediction model. The new prediction model was used to predict polymer flooding water-cut reduction of three blocks in Daqing Oilfield, and good result has been achieved. All the coefficients of correlation between the actual water-cut curves and the predicted curves are over 0.98. Both errors of the pre-dicted lowest water-cut value and injection rate with the actual values are less than 4%. The new model can be used to predict the effects of polymer injection rate, polymer concentration and injection speed on polymer flooding water-cut variation. This model needs a few parameters and is easy in usage.