CAJ | 학술논문

灾害的损失受灾前经济发展水平、灾种差异、灾后恢复重建策略、灾害管理水平和灾害保险体系完善程度等复杂因素的影响,加上基础数据精度、获取难度和校验的不确定性,目前还没有有效的灾害间接经济损失评估方法.而已有间接经济损失评估方法存在不足:首先,评估对灾害间接经济损失的构成、时空维界定模糊:其次,评估模型假设太多往往偏离灾后实际经济状况;最后,模型对灾害扰动的动态影响机制考虑不足,往往忽视灾后经济系统的弹性和部门生产容量的动态变化特征.因此,在进行灾害损失评估时应注意灾害对经济影响的动态机理,结合不同灾害类型对经济影响的特点和当地的经济发展状况,合理设置相关参数,使模型更切合实际,从而更合理有效的评估灾害造成的间接损失.
재해적손실수재전경제발전수평、재충차이、재후회복중건책략、재해관리수평화재해보험체계완선정도등복잡인소적영향,가상기출수거정도、획취난도화교험적불학정성,목전환몰유유효적재해간접경제손실평고방법.이이유간접경제손실평고방법존재불족:수선,평고대재해간접경제손실적구성、시공유계정모호:기차,평고모형가설태다왕왕편리재후실제경제상황;최후,모형대재해우동적동태영향궤제고필불족,왕왕홀시재후경제계통적탄성화부문생산용량적동태변화특정.인차,재진행재해손실평고시응주의재해대경제영향적동태궤리,결합불동재해류형대경제영향적특점화당지적경제발전상황,합리설치상관삼수,사모형경절합실제,종이경합리유효적평고재해조성적간접손실.
Disaster loss is related to the pre-disaster economic development level, disaster types, post-disaster recovery strategies, disaster management ability and disaster insurance system per-fection, combined with basic data accuracy, access difficulty and uncertainty of calibration, there is no effective indirect economic loss assessment methods until now. The present indirect loss es-timation methods have some deficiencies: First, the definition of indirect economic losses composi-tion, the spatial and temporal dimension of disasters were vague; secondly, the model assumptions are too much deviation from the actual economic situation in post-disaster; and finally, the model tended to ignore the dynamic changes characteristics of the post-disaster economic system flexi-bility and production capacity of the industrial sectors. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the dynamic mechanism of disasters impact on the economic, and set the relevant parameters rea-sonable so that the model is more realistic to reflect the real disaster impact, and estimate the in-direct economic losses caused by disasters well for decision-making.