CAJ | 학술논문

目的建立布鲁杆菌病爆发流行预警指标体系.方法通过文献查阅和专家会议,拟定布鲁杆菌病爆发流行预警指标的初始框架和指标,应用德尔菲专家咨询法确定预警指标和指标权重,权重法比较各指标间作用.结果专家从事布鲁杆菌病防控工作平均年限为(25.10±8.80)年.2轮咨询专家的积极系数分别为95%和68%.2轮咨询专家协调系数分别为0.35、0.54,协凋系数检验X2R值分别为81.31、285.27,P均<0.01.布鲁杆菌病预警指标体系共包括5个一级指标(宿主动物、高危人群、社会环境、指示病例、既往发病水平)和13个二级指标,5个一级指标的权重系数分别是0.21、0.22、0.17、0.21、0.19.结论初步建立了适用于我国布鲁杆菌病防控的预警指标体系,建议根据当地的实际情况,结合布鲁杆菌病的预警指标体系,制订预警方案.
목적 건립포로간균병폭발류행예경지표체계.방법 통과문헌사열화전가회의,의정포로간균병폭발류행예경지표적초시광가화지표,응용덕이비전가자순법학정예경지표화지표권중,권중법비교각지표간작용.결과 전가종사포로간균병방공공작평균년한위(25.10±8.80)년.2륜자순전가적적겁계수분별위95%화68%.2륜자순전가협조계수분별위0.35、0.54,협조계수검험X2R치분별위81.31、285.27,P균<0.01.포로간균병예경지표체계공포괄5개일급지표(숙주동물、고위인군、사회배경、지시병례、기왕발병수평)화13개이급지표,5개일급지표적권중계수분별시0.21、0.22、0.17、0.21、0.19.결론 초보건립료괄용우아국포로간균병방공적예경지표체계,건의근거당지적실제정황,결합포로간균병적예경지표체계,제정예경방안.
Objective To develop an early-warning indicator system of brucellosis outbreak. Methods The methods of literature review and expert discussion were used to formulate the initiatory framework and indicators, and then Delphi method was used to filter indicators, discuss the boundary of indicators and determine the weighting coefficient. Results The average length of service provided by experts who engaged in prevention and control of brucellosis was (25.10 ± 8.80) years and the positive coefficient of the consultant experts of the two-round results were 95% and 68%, respectively. Kendall coefficients were 0.35, 0.54 and X2R value were 81.31 and 285.27, respectively and P value was all less than 0.01. Five first-level indicators(the host animal, high-risk groups,social environment, index case and the level of previous disease) and 13 secondary indicators were selected to develop the early-warning indicator system of brucellosis outbreak. The weight coefficients of the five first-level indicators were 0.21, 0.22, 0.17, 0.21 and 0.19, respectively. Conclusions The early-waming indicator system of brucellosis outbreak is initially established. We propose to develop the early-warning programs according to local conditions and the indicator system.