CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规天气资料和数值预报产品,应用天气分析和诊断分析方法,并结合宁夏寒潮预报系统的预报结果,对2008年12月2-4日和12月20-21日宁夏出现的两次典型寒潮天气过程进行对比分析,结果表明:两次过程均是在前期强烈升温的基础上,有强冷空气在西西伯利亚及贝加尔湖堆积并向南侵袭造成的;两次过程亚洲中高纬环流形势均表现为"一脊一槽"型,动力机制均为高空旋转低压槽与强锋区,促使寒潮爆发的流场均为"低槽旋转型";冷空气爆发后,宁夏上空均由强盛的冷平流控制,地面冷高压均进入关键区并达到寒潮强度;但由于寒潮发生的环流背景、影响系统及冷空气的强度、发展、移动路径不同,因此两次过程的降温幅度和对宁夏造成的影响也不同.在此基础上,总结出宁夏冬季寒潮天气的预报着眼点.
이용상규천기자료화수치예보산품,응용천기분석화진단분석방법,병결합저하한조예보계통적예보결과,대2008년12월2-4일화12월20-21일저하출현적량차전형한조천기과정진행대비분석,결과표명:량차과정균시재전기강렬승온적기출상,유강랭공기재서서백리아급패가이호퇴적병향남침습조성적;량차과정아주중고위배류형세균표현위"일척일조"형,동력궤제균위고공선전저압조여강봉구,촉사한조폭발적류장균위"저조선전형";랭공기폭발후,저하상공균유강성적랭평류공제,지면랭고압균진입관건구병체도한조강도;단유우한조발생적배류배경、영향계통급랭공기적강도、발전、이동로경불동,인차량차과정적강온폭도화대저하조성적영향야불동.재차기출상,총결출저하동계한조천기적예보착안점.
Based on the daily observation data and numerical forecast products, two typical severe cold wave processes during 2-4 and 20 - 21, December 2008 have been analyzed, utilizing synoptic and diagnostic analyses and the forecasting result from the cold wave forecasting system of Ningxia.The results showed that, based on the warming strongly before the twice cold wave, strong cold air was accumulated in West Siberia and Baikal Lake and broke out southward; the circulation patterns showed a trough and a ridge at middle and high latitudes in Asia, dynamic mechanisms were an upper rotating low-pressure trough and strong front zone, and the stream fields leading to outbreak of cold wave were the low trough rotating pattern during twice cold wave;after the outbreak of cold air, strong cold advection controlled Ningxia and cold high pressure entered into the key areas and reached cold wave intensity. However because of the differences of circulation background, the weather impact system as well as the intensity, development and moving path of cold air currents, the cooling range and the impact on Ningxia of the two cold wave processes were different. The main forecast factors of winter cold wave in Ningxia were put forward based on the above analyses.