CAJ | 학술논문

目的探索太阳磁暴对河南省疟疾发病的影响,为河南省疟疾的防治和监测提供科学依据.方法收集1968-2007年河南省疟疾发病资料和同期的太阳磁暴指数资料,用研究灾变规律的关键时方法进行分析,计算出统计量U,若|U|值超过某限度μ_α,就在相应显著性水平下认为当与关键时错位l个时刻时,因素|X_t|可能有灾异发生.结果 1968-2007年河南省疟疾发病率为0.04/万～1695.98/万,平均为172.43/万,同期太阳磁暴指数为14.95～37.08,平均为23.8.在太阳磁暴指数高年后的第2、3年,河南省疟疾发病率升高的可能性超过90%.结论太阳磁暴指数可能对河南省疟疾发病率有影响.
목적 탐색태양자폭대하남성학질발병적영향,위하남성학질적방치화감측제공과학의거.방법 수집1968-2007년하남성학질발병자료화동기적태양자폭지수자료,용연구재변규률적관건시방법진행분석,계산출통계량U,약|U|치초과모한도μ_α,취재상응현저성수평하인위당여관건시착위l개시각시,인소|X_t|가능유재이발생.결과 1968-2007년하남성학질발병솔위0.04/만～1695.98/만,평균위172.43/만,동기태양자폭지수위14.95～37.08,평균위23.8.재태양자폭지수고년후적제2、3년,하남성학질발병솔승고적가능성초과90%.결론 태양자폭지수가능대하남성학질발병솔유영향.
Objective To explore the relationship between the incidence of malaria in Henan Province and the solar magnetic storms so as to provide the scientific basis for the prevention, treatment and monitoring of malaria in Henan Province. Methods Data of the incidence of malaria in Henan Province from 1968 to 2007 and the solar magnetic storm index information during the same period were collected. The method to study the laws of catastrophe-the Key Time Method was used for analysis, by which statistics U was calculated. If the|U| exceeds a certain limit μ_α, that factor of catastrophe may happen when a moment of l was dislocated with the key on the corresponding level of significance. Results The incidence of malaria in Henan Province from 1968 to 2007 was from 0.04 to 1 695.98 per ten thousand, with an average of 172.43 per ten thousand. During the same period the solar magnetic storm index was 14.95-37.08, with an average of 23.8. The incidence of malaria in Henan Province would increase in the second or the third year after the year of high solar magnetic storm index. It was statistically significant at the 90% confidence level. Conclusion The high solar magnet-ic storm index might exhibit an impact on the increasing of the incidence of malaria in Henan Province.