CAJ | 학술논문

河北省是旱涝频发地区之一.本文基于1965-2005年河北省84个气象站的逐月降水数据,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)、正交经验分解函数和旋转正交经验分解函数等方法,分析了近41a河北省旱涝时空变化分布特征.结果表明:河北省旱涝总体上呈阶段性变化特征,1965-1972年和1997-2005年干旱比较频繁,1973-1996年干旱频率较低;20世纪70年代和90年代前中期为雨涝比较频繁阶段.春秋季干旱呈减轻趋势,夏季干旱呈加剧趋势(不显著),冬季旱涝变化趋势不明显,但90年代以来河北省极端季节旱涝事件比较频繁.在空间上,河北省旱涝分布可分为东部、北部、南部和西部四个不同的区域,四个区域的旱涝总体上具有相对一致的大趋势,但在某些时段也表现出一定的南北差异和东西差异.河北省全省20世纪90年代后期旱涝变率最大,70年代前期和末期变率也较大,80年代变率最小;四个区域总体上表现出与全省大致相同的趋势,只是2000年以后南部地区旱涝变率持续较高.
하북성시한로빈발지구지일.본문기우1965-2005년하북성84개기상참적축월강수수거,채용표준화강수지수(SPI)、정교경험분해함수화선전정교경험분해함수등방법,분석료근41a하북성한로시공변화분포특정.결과표명:하북성한로총체상정계단성변화특정,1965-1972년화1997-2005년간한비교빈번,1973-1996년간한빈솔교저;20세기70년대화90년대전중기위우로비교빈번계단.춘추계간한정감경추세,하계간한정가극추세(불현저),동계한로변화추세불명현,단90년대이래하북성겁단계절한로사건비교빈번.재공간상,하북성한로분포가분위동부、북부、남부화서부사개불동적구역,사개구역적한로총체상구유상대일치적대추세,단재모사시단야표현출일정적남북차이화동서차이.하북성전성20세기90년대후기한로변솔최대,70년대전기화말기변솔야교대,80년대변솔최소;사개구역총체상표현출여전성대치상동적추세,지시2000년이후남부지구한로변솔지속교고.
Drought is one of the major natural hazards in Hebei province. Based on standard precipitation index (SPI), the spatial-temporal characteristics of drought-flood in Hebei province during 1965-2005 were studied by empirical orthogonal function method. The results showed that drought-flood varies with time, in total. Drought was more severe in the periods of 1965-1972 and 1997-2005, and flood was more frequent in 1970s and early 1990s. Occurrence of drought in spring and autumn tends to decrease, while in summer tends to be more severe. There was no obvious change for winter. However, extreme drought and water logging hazards were frequent in Hebei province since 1990s. Hebei could be divided into four sub-regions (east, north, south and west) in terms of the spatial distribution of drought and water logging. There was a consistence among these regions and the whole province, though there were north-south gaps and east-west gaps. The most drastic drought-flood changes had occurred in the 1990s. These Changes were also obvious in the early 1970s, but lest obvious in the 1980s. But, the change rate had been high in the south part since 2000.