CAJ | 학술논문

为进行强震的年度预测,采取年变化率做为水位变化参量,大于或小于一定的年变化率值即为强震异常。在研究多年的强震前地下水位异常震例的基础上,在云南3个地震区分别确定了指标观测井及其强震的预测指标：丽江地震区选择丽江井,水位异常判定指标为年变化率R临≤-1.10;楚雄地震区为大姚井,指标是R临≥0.03;滇西南地震区为双江井,指标是R临≤-0.30。分区建立的预测指标对于强震的时空强三要素可做出一定程度的预测。这些研究结果可在今后的预测实践中检验与修正。
위진행강진적년도예측,채취년변화솔주위수위변화삼량,대우혹소우일정적년변화솔치즉위강진이상。재연구다년적강진전지하수위이상진례적기출상,재운남3개지진구분별학정료지표관측정급기강진적예측지표：려강지진구선택려강정,수위이상판정지표위년변화솔R림≤-1.10;초웅지진구위대요정,지표시R림≥0.03;전서남지진구위쌍강정,지표시R림≤-0.30。분구건립적예측지표대우강진적시공강삼요소가주출일정정도적예측。저사연구결과가재금후적예측실천중검험여수정。
In order to do better in the annual strong earthquake forecast, the authors consider that the annual changing rate higher or lower than certain value is anomaly before strong earthquakes by using the annual changing rate as changing before some strong confirmed in three parameter of water-level. Based on the analysis of many years water level anomalies earthquakes, the index of water-level wells and strong earthquake forecasting have been seismic zones of Yunnan area： in Lijiang earthquake zone, the index well is Lijiang Well and the index of water-level anomaly is the annual changing rate R临≤ - 1.10 ; in Chuxiong earthquake zone, it is Dayao Well and the index is R临≥ 30. 03 ; in southwest Yunnan, Shuangjiang Well has been chosen and the index is R临≤ - 0. 30. The subarea indexes can do certain forecasting of the earthquakes＇ space-time-magnitude, so these results should be tested and modified in the forecasting practice in the future.