高原气象
高原氣象
고원기상
PLATEAU METEOROLOGY
2001年
1期
66-70
,共5页
栗珂%赵东%杨碧轩%郭宏武%高炬
慄珂%趙東%楊碧軒%郭宏武%高炬
률가%조동%양벽헌%곽굉무%고거
西北区%大旱年%概率%统计推断
西北區%大旱年%概率%統計推斷
서북구%대한년%개솔%통계추단
根据中国西北近500a旱涝等级资料，用Bernoulli试验等理论模式，对大旱年发生的概率特征进行了研究，得出大旱年发生的统计规律。在全球气候变暖的大背景下，给出了21世纪中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断结果。
根據中國西北近500a旱澇等級資料，用Bernoulli試驗等理論模式，對大旱年髮生的概率特徵進行瞭研究，得齣大旱年髮生的統計規律。在全毬氣候變暖的大揹景下，給齣瞭21世紀中國西北大旱年髮生概率的統計推斷結果。
근거중국서북근500a한로등급자료，용Bernoulli시험등이론모식，대대한년발생적개솔특정진행료연구，득출대한년발생적통계규률。재전구기후변난적대배경하，급출료21세기중국서북대한년발생개솔적통계추단결과。
Based on the data of the classes of flood/drought about fivehundred years in northwest China, using the theoretical model of Bernoulli test and others, the character of probability was studied for the worst drought to occur, the statistical rule of the worst drought year to was occurred to be obtained. In the background of the climate getting warm over the world, the result of the statistical inference of probability of the worst drought year will occur to be given in the 21th century in northwest China.
