中华预防医学杂志
中華預防醫學雜誌
중화예방의학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF
2010年
3期
204-208
,共5页
刘沛%李靖欣%孙金芳%Jianping Xue%陈炳为%张宏%余小金%王灿楠%袁宝君%马永建%田子华
劉沛%李靖訢%孫金芳%Jianping Xue%陳炳為%張宏%餘小金%王燦楠%袁寶君%馬永建%田子華
류패%리정흔%손금방%Jianping Xue%진병위%장굉%여소금%왕찬남%원보군%마영건%전자화
模型,统计学%膳食调查%软件设计%软件确认
模型,統計學%膳食調查%軟件設計%軟件確認
모형,통계학%선식조사%연건설계%연건학인
Models,statistical%Diet surveys%Software design%Software validation
目的 开发具有我国自主知识产权的膳食暴露评估模型软件,并按国际通用标准对其概率评估模型进行合理性和计算正确性验证.方法 基于我国膳食调查及食品污染物监测数据,采用统计分析系统(SAS)编程技术建立膳食暴露评估模型计算模块和人机对话界面.使用全国2～7岁儿童膳食暴露概率评估模型的结果与点估计及江苏省金湖地区2～7岁儿童双份饭研究结果相比较的方法验证模型的合理性.通过随机抽取10 000人天的膳食暴露数据与@Risk软件计算结果相比较的方法验证软件外部计算的正确性;以模型计算的2～3岁儿童食物消费量及铅污染残留浓度数据的均数漂移为指标验证本软件内部计算的正确性.结果 成功开发了包括多种膳食暴露评估模型并具有易于操作用户界面的中国膳食暴露评估模型软件.在合理性验证方面,概率评估模型结果低于点估计,其中黄瓜的乙酰甲胺磷膳食暴露点估计为4.78 μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),概率评估的P99.9为0.39μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1);同时概率评估高于双份饭结果,儿童铅膳食暴露概率评估P95为11.08μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),双份饭P95为5.75μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1).在计算正确性验证方面,概率评估模型计算结果与@Risk结果接近,乙酰甲胺磷膳食暴露概率评估计算的P95为4.27μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),@Risk计算的P95为4.24 μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1);消费量及污染物的均数漂移表现为以零为中心的随机误差分布,漂移范围为0.05%～11.9%.结论 开发的中国膳食暴露评估模型软件计算正确,结果合理,对提升我国膳食暴露评估技术水平具有现实意义.
目的 開髮具有我國自主知識產權的膳食暴露評估模型軟件,併按國際通用標準對其概率評估模型進行閤理性和計算正確性驗證.方法 基于我國膳食調查及食品汙染物鑑測數據,採用統計分析繫統(SAS)編程技術建立膳食暴露評估模型計算模塊和人機對話界麵.使用全國2～7歲兒童膳食暴露概率評估模型的結果與點估計及江囌省金湖地區2～7歲兒童雙份飯研究結果相比較的方法驗證模型的閤理性.通過隨機抽取10 000人天的膳食暴露數據與@Risk軟件計算結果相比較的方法驗證軟件外部計算的正確性;以模型計算的2～3歲兒童食物消費量及鉛汙染殘留濃度數據的均數漂移為指標驗證本軟件內部計算的正確性.結果 成功開髮瞭包括多種膳食暴露評估模型併具有易于操作用戶界麵的中國膳食暴露評估模型軟件.在閤理性驗證方麵,概率評估模型結果低于點估計,其中黃瓜的乙酰甲胺燐膳食暴露點估計為4.78 μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),概率評估的P99.9為0.39μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1);同時概率評估高于雙份飯結果,兒童鉛膳食暴露概率評估P95為11.08μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),雙份飯P95為5.75μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1).在計算正確性驗證方麵,概率評估模型計算結果與@Risk結果接近,乙酰甲胺燐膳食暴露概率評估計算的P95為4.27μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),@Risk計算的P95為4.24 μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1);消費量及汙染物的均數漂移錶現為以零為中心的隨機誤差分佈,漂移範圍為0.05%～11.9%.結論 開髮的中國膳食暴露評估模型軟件計算正確,結果閤理,對提升我國膳食暴露評估技術水平具有現實意義.
목적 개발구유아국자주지식산권적선식폭로평고모형연건,병안국제통용표준대기개솔평고모형진행합이성화계산정학성험증.방법 기우아국선식조사급식품오염물감측수거,채용통계분석계통(SAS)편정기술건립선식폭로평고모형계산모괴화인궤대화계면.사용전국2～7세인동선식폭로개솔평고모형적결과여점고계급강소성금호지구2～7세인동쌍빈반연구결과상비교적방법험증모형적합이성.통과수궤추취10 000인천적선식폭로수거여@Risk연건계산결과상비교적방법험증연건외부계산적정학성;이모형계산적2～3세인동식물소비량급연오염잔류농도수거적균수표이위지표험증본연건내부계산적정학성.결과 성공개발료포괄다충선식폭로평고모형병구유역우조작용호계면적중국선식폭로평고모형연건.재합이성험증방면,개솔평고모형결과저우점고계,기중황과적을선갑알린선식폭로점고계위4.78 μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),개솔평고적P99.9위0.39μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1);동시개솔평고고우쌍빈반결과,인동연선식폭로개솔평고P95위11.08μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),쌍빈반P95위5.75μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1).재계산정학성험증방면,개솔평고모형계산결과여@Risk결과접근,을선갑알린선식폭로개솔평고계산적P95위4.27μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),@Risk계산적P95위4.24 μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1);소비량급오염물적균수표이표현위이령위중심적수궤오차분포,표이범위위0.05%～11.9%.결론 개발적중국선식폭로평고모형연건계산정학,결과합리,대제승아국선식폭로평고기술수평구유현실의의.
Objective To develop the dietary exposure evaluation model software accredited of Chinese intellectual property rights and to verify the rationality and accuracy of the results from the probabilistic model in Chinese dietary exposure evaluation model software according to international standards.Methods The software of SAS was used to build various evaluation model based on the data from Chinese dietary survey and the chemical compound in food surveillance and to design an operation interface.The results from probabilistie dietary exposure model for children 2-7 years old were compared with that from duplicate portion study of 2-7 years children dietary exposure in Jinhu,Jiangsu province in order to analyze the rationality of model The results from probabilistic model of dietary exposure were compared with the results from @ Risk software to verify the eorreetion of the probabilistic model by using the same data of randomly selected 10 000 study subjects from national dietary survey,While,the mean drift was used as an internal index to illustrate the accuracy of the eomputation.Results Chinese dietary exposure evaluation software was developed successfully.On the rationality,the results from prohabilistic model were lower than that from the point estimation(e.g.,cucumber:the result of point estimation of acephate was 4.78μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1) ,while the results of prebabilistic model which was 0.39μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1)).Meanwhile the results from probabilistic model were higher than the results of duplicate portion study(on the P95,the result of probabilistic model of Pb exposure in children was 11.08μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),while the results of duplicate portion study was 5.75μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1)).On accuracy,the results from @ Risk and the probabilistic model were highly consistent(on the P95 ,the result of probabilistie assessment of acephate diet exposure was 4.27μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1),while the results of duplicate portion study was 4.24μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1)),and the mean drift was of random distribution,the drift region varied from 0.05% to 11.9%.Conclusion The results computed by the software of Chinese dietary exposure evaluation model are reliable and reasonable,which is a meaningful step to improve the dietary exposure evaluation technique in China.
