CAJ | 학술논문

对计算机病毒发展态势预测,能够提前对网络安全状况进行判断,有利于做好事前防范,并建立预警机制。目前对计算机病毒发展态势的预测还处于探索阶段,传统算法在此方面的预测效果也尚不明确。这里比较了多种预测算法,如移动平均、态势预测、季节变动预测及线性回归等方法在实际计算机病毒发展分析上的预测准确率。通过对不同时间跨度,不同类型计算机病毒数据进行深入分析发现,线性回归和季节变动算法能够较好地适应具有时间周期性的计算机病毒日志数据。
대계산궤병독발전태세예측,능구제전대망락안전상황진행판단,유리우주호사전방범,병건립예경궤제。목전대계산궤병독발전태세적예측환처우탐색계단,전통산법재차방면적예측효과야상불명학。저리비교료다충예측산법,여이동평균、태세예측、계절변동예측급선성회귀등방법재실제계산궤병독발전분석상적예측준학솔。통과대불동시간과도,불동류형계산궤병독수거진행심입분석발현,선성회귀화계절변동산법능구교호지괄응구유시간주기성적계산궤병독일지수거。
Forecast on the development trend of computer virus can help the judgment of network security situation for proper precautionary preparations. Currently forecast on the development trend of computer virus is still in exploratory stage,the forecast results of traditional method in this regard are still not clear. Various prediction algorithms based on actual computer virus are compared,including moving average,trend forecasting,seasonal changes forecasting,and linear regression and so on. The analysis on different time spans,different types of malicious code data indicates that the linear regression and seasonal change forecasting algorithm have better performance in the periodic computer virus log data.