CAJ | 학술논문

在建立诊断影响华东地区热带气旋年频数异常概念模型的基础上，采用逐步回归方法构成用前期各月资料诊断预测华东地区热带气旋年频数的客观模式，历史拟合率较高，且进行了试用，证明有预测能力。
재건립진단영향화동지구열대기선년빈수이상개념모형적기출상，채용축 보회 귀방법구성용전기각월자료진단예측화동지구열대기선년빈수적객관모식，역사의합솔교고 ，차진행료시용，증명유예측능력。
Based on diagnostic conceptual model of anomalous yearly frequency of tr opical cyclone affecting East China, objective prediction models of yearly frequ ency of tropical cyclone affecting East China and Shanghai were constructed by u sing stepwise regression analysis. The prediction experiments were carried out a nd the results proved that the prediction models have predictive capacity.