CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用土地生产模型基于人口增长率、国民生产总值增长率和农业生产率的增长率来预测尼泊尔国家,Chitwan地区,Jutpani村的森林破坏的面积与趋势。在研究中如果上述各项增长率保持目前水平不变，通过土地生产模型的模拟，研究区域的所有林业用地将以每年24%的速率在2038年全部变为农业用地；假设自给作物生产率每年按1%增长，经济作物按2%增长，则每年林业用地转换为农业用地的速率降低为17%，但到2038年可能只留有124公顷的森林。因此农业生产率是影响森林破坏的主要因素，加强农业管理极为重要。
본문이용토지생산모형기우인구증장솔、국민생산총치증장솔화농업생산솔적증장솔래예측니박이국가,Chitwan지구,Jutpani촌적삼림파배적면적여추세。재연구중여과상술각항증장솔보지목전수평불변，통과토지생산모형적모의，연구구역적소유임업용지장이매년24%적속솔재2038년전부변위농업용지；가설자급작물생산솔매년안1%증장，경제작물안2%증장，칙매년임업용지전환위농업용지적속솔강저위17%，단도2038년가능지류유124공경적삼림。인차농업생산솔시영향삼림파배적주요인소，가강농업관리겁위중요。
Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutpani village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (APM). Through the APM simulation in this study, all of forestland will be transferred into agricultural land in 2030 at the rate of 24% per year on the current productivity. And if the productivity of subsistence food crop is assumed to increase at the rate of 1%, the productivity of market crop and export crop increase at the rate of 2% annually, deforestation rate will decrease to 17% per year, but only 124 hm2 forest land will be left till 2038. The agriculture productivity is a very important factor for the deforestation, so intensification of agriculture management is more important.