草业科学
草業科學
초업과학
PRATACULTURAL SCIENCE
2009年
12期
108-112
,共5页
随机模型%生死过程%野放麋鹿%种群生存力分析
隨機模型%生死過程%野放麋鹿%種群生存力分析
수궤모형%생사과정%야방미록%충군생존력분석
stochastic model%birth-death process%wild Pere David's deer%population viability analysis
利用野放麋鹿Elaphurus davidianus种群检测数据建立了随机指数增长模型与生死过程模型,并对种群的未来状态、灭绝风险及种群生存力进行了分析.随机指数增长模型模拟表明,随机因素对种群动态有很大影响.随着方差的增大,灭绝概率逐渐增加.且在方差一定的情况下,继续放养小数量的麋鹿对种群灭绝概率影响不大.基于生死过程建立的随机模型计算出野放麋鹿种群在出生率为16.13%、死亡率为7.13%的情况下的种群数量翻倍时间为10年.同时就不同的出生率与死亡率分别模拟计算了95%把握下的种群数量倍增时间.
利用野放麋鹿Elaphurus davidianus種群檢測數據建立瞭隨機指數增長模型與生死過程模型,併對種群的未來狀態、滅絕風險及種群生存力進行瞭分析.隨機指數增長模型模擬錶明,隨機因素對種群動態有很大影響.隨著方差的增大,滅絕概率逐漸增加.且在方差一定的情況下,繼續放養小數量的麋鹿對種群滅絕概率影響不大.基于生死過程建立的隨機模型計算齣野放麋鹿種群在齣生率為16.13%、死亡率為7.13%的情況下的種群數量翻倍時間為10年.同時就不同的齣生率與死亡率分彆模擬計算瞭95%把握下的種群數量倍增時間.
이용야방미록Elaphurus davidianus충군검측수거건립료수궤지수증장모형여생사과정모형,병대충군적미래상태、멸절풍험급충군생존력진행료분석.수궤지수증장모형모의표명,수궤인소대충군동태유흔대영향.수착방차적증대,멸절개솔축점증가.차재방차일정적정황하,계속방양소수량적미록대충군멸절개솔영향불대.기우생사과정건립적수궤모형계산출야방미록충군재출생솔위16.13%、사망솔위7.13%적정황하적충군수량번배시간위10년.동시취불동적출생솔여사망솔분별모의계산료95%파악하적충군수량배증시간.
The stochastic exponential growth model and birth-death process model were established to analyze the extinction risk and population viability with detected data of wild Pere David's deer populations. The first model showed that the stochastic factors performed a significant impact on population dynamics. The probability of extinction gradually increased as the increasing of variance. It had little effect on the probability of extinction to keep stocking a small number of deer under the condition of stable variance. In addition, the calculated population doubling time was 10 years with birth-death process model while the birth rate was 16.13% and the death rate was 7.13%. At the same time, the population doubling time on 95% confidential level was calculated with different fertility and mortality.
