CAJ | 학술논문

鉴于高速公路施工的被动性,利用时间序列建立数学模型.对具有非平稳性的表面沉降进行一次差分(d=1)处理,使其转化为具有平稳性的沉降速率问题,即将非平稳性时间序列ARIMA(p,d,q)模型转化为平稳的ARMA(p,q)模型.建立了ARMA(1,1)模型来对公路施工填筑期间的沉降进行短期预测,进而对下一级加载的时间进行预测.结果表明,预测结果可靠,精度高,能够很好地反映填筑期问沉降的变形特性,适用于高速公路重点断面分析.
감우고속공로시공적피동성,이용시간서렬건립수학모형.대구유비평은성적표면침강진행일차차분(d=1)처리,사기전화위구유평은성적침강속솔문제,즉장비평은성시간서렬ARIMA(p,d,q)모형전화위평은적ARMA(p,q)모형.건립료ARMA(1,1)모형래대공로시공전축기간적침강진행단기예측,진이대하일급가재적시간진행예측.결과표명,예측결과가고,정도고,능구흔호지반영전축기문침강적변형특성,괄용우고속공로중점단면분석.
Mathematic models are established with time series for the passivity of expressway construction. The unrest surface's settlement is converted into rest settlement velocity by dealing with simple difference (d=1), namely the unrest time series ARIMA(p,d,q) model is transformed to rest ARMA(p,q) model. ARMA(1,1) model is established to forecast the settlement during constructing subgrade and the time for next load. The forecast results are precise and reliable, and can reflect the distortion characteristics during constructing subgrade.